RCP 시나리오에 따른 계룡저수지 유역의 설계홍수량 산정
Estimation of Design Flood for the Gyeryong Reservoir Watershed based on RCP scenarios
2
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavyrainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. Themain objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative ConcentrationPathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981∼2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were alsoobtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for threedifferent future spans, i.e. 2011∼2040; 2025s, 2041∼2070; 2055s, 2071∼2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculatedusing HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9%, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase indesign floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reducedamage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.
Abstract
Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavyrainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. Themain objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative ConcentrationPathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981∼2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were alsoobtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for threedifferent future spans, i.e. 2011∼2040; 2025s, 2041∼2070; 2055s, 2071∼2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculatedusing HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9%, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase indesign floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reducedamage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.
참고문헌 (22)
- Abnormal climate report, "Climate Change Information Center", ~ (2013)
- Hong, S. J., "The impact assessment of climate change on streamflow in Han River basin based on RCP climate change scenario", Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 2012(10), pp.704~708 (2012)
- Hosking, J. R. M., "L-Moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statics", Journal of Royal Statistical Society, 52(1), pp.105~124 (1990)
- 황순호, "황룡강 유역 저수지군 하류하천 영향평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 54(3), pp.103~111 (2012), 한국농공학회[DOI]
- Hwang, S. W., "Uncertainty of methodology and process of climate change impact assessment", Rural Resources, 55(1), pp.30~39
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (2013), Cambridge University Press
- 조덕준, "확률강우량을 초과하는 호우사상의 발생특성 분석", 한국방재학회논문집, 12(2), pp.309~313 (2012), 한국방재학회[DOI]
- 전상민, "농업용 저수지 둑 높이기에 따른 홍수조절효과 분석", 한국농공학회논문집, 55(6), pp.57~68 (2013), 한국농공학회
- 김병식, "RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 미호천 유역의 설계홍수량에 미치는 영향평가", 한국습지학회지, 15(1), pp.105~114 (2013), 한국습지학회
- Maeng, S. J., "Regional frequency analysis", The Korea Contents Society, 8(3), pp.403~407 (2006)
- Development research report of water resources management technology in 1999: Vol. 1, "Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport", the creation of probability rainfall in Korea, ~ (2000)
- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, "Design criteria of the river", ~ (2005)
- National water ensure security measures to climate change: the second year, "Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport", ~ (2009)
- Climate change scenarios corresponding to IPCC assessment report 5th in 2012, "National Institute of Meteorological Research", ~ (2012)
- 노선희, "RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 금강유역의 미래 용수공급 변화전망", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 46(5), pp.505~517 (2013), 한국수자원학회
- 박지훈, "분위사상법을 이용한 RCP 기반 미래 극한강수량 편의보정 ; 우리나라 20개 관측소를 대상으로", 한국농공학회논문집, 54(6), pp.133~142 (2012), 한국농공학회
- 박지훈, "RCP4.5 시나리오에 따른 IDF 곡선 분석; 우리나라 30개 저수지를 대상으로", 한국방재학회논문집, 13(6), pp.145~159 (2013), 한국방재학회
- 손아롱, "기후변화 영향을 고려한 도시지역의 확률강우량 전망", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 46(6), pp.683~696 (2013), 한국수자원학회
- Song, K. H., "Characteristic of design flood flow using L-Moment according to gradual composition of annual maximum flood flows", pp.2009
- Seong, C. H., "A comparative study of unit hydrograph models using HEC-HMS at a small watershed", pp.2004
- 성충현, "농업소유역의 홍수유출량 추정을 위한 단위도 모형 비교연구", 한국농공학회논문집, 50(3), pp.19~36 (2008), 한국농공학회
- 성장현, "RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 미래 극한강수의 비정상성 빈도해석", 한국방재학회논문집, 12(2), pp.231~244 (2012), 한국방재학회[DOI]