강우의 비정상성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 미래 침수특성 분석
Future Inundation Characteristics Analysis for the Cheongmi Stream Watershed Considering Non-stationarity of Precipitation
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Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstabletendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage indowntown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it isnecessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequencyanalysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative andobjective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysiswas performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, andinundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures(rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showedhigher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findingsare expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.
Abstract
Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstabletendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage indowntown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it isnecessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequencyanalysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative andobjective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysiswas performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, andinundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures(rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showedhigher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findingsare expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.
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