샤이트럼프는 누구인가?: 2016년∼2024년 대선을 중심으로
Shy Trump Voters in the 2016-2024 Presidential Elections
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In the United States, from the 2016 presidential election to the 2024 presidential election, many polls have made significant errors in predicting election results. Especially, in the 2024 presidential election, Trump won decisively both in the electoral vote as well as in the popular vote, contrary to the polls that had predicted a close race. From this perspective, this article examines people named “Shy Trump” voters who were not captured in the polls. This article indicates that in 2016 and 2020, the white Shy Trump voters, who hid their dissatisfaction regarding the racial conflict and the ensuing BLM movement, contributed to making the gap between the polls and the actual results. On the other hand, in the 2024 presidential election, concerns about immigration issues-instead of racial conflict-emerged as the primary issue. The Shy Trump phenomenon was driven by citizens living in states with large numbers of undocumented immigrants and blue-collar workers.
Abstract
In the United States, from the 2016 presidential election to the 2024 presidential election, many polls have made significant errors in predicting election results. Especially, in the 2024 presidential election, Trump won decisively both in the electoral vote as well as in the popular vote, contrary to the polls that had predicted a close race. From this perspective, this article examines people named “Shy Trump” voters who were not captured in the polls. This article indicates that in 2016 and 2020, the white Shy Trump voters, who hid their dissatisfaction regarding the racial conflict and the ensuing BLM movement, contributed to making the gap between the polls and the actual results. On the other hand, in the 2024 presidential election, concerns about immigration issues-instead of racial conflict-emerged as the primary issue. The Shy Trump phenomenon was driven by citizens living in states with large numbers of undocumented immigrants and blue-collar workers.
참고문헌 (20)
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