2016년 미국 대선에 나타난 소수인종의 투표결과 분석: 라티노의 경우
Examining Minority Group’s Voting Behavior in the 2016 US Presidential Election: The Case of Latino
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본 논문의 목적은 미국의 2016년 대통령 선거에 나타난 라티노의 클린턴 지지율이 실제로 2012년 오바마에 대한 지지율보다 낮았다는 주장을 검증하는 것이다. 출구조사결과와 실제 투표는 커다란 차이를 보이는 경우가 많은데, 이 문제는 특히 소수인종의 경우에 더욱 두드러진다. 왜냐하면 소수인종의 경우 특정 지역에 밀집되어 사는 경향이 있기 때문에 대표성을 가진 표본을 추출하기 어렵기 때문이다. 이러한 표본상의 문제점 때문에 출구조사는 여러 주에서 결과를 잘못 예측하기도 했다. 본 논문에서는 카운티별 집적데이터와 비모수적 통계기법을 사용하여 라티노 인구비율과 민주당의 대선후보 지지와의 관계를 고찰한다. 이를 통하여, 기존의 주장과 달리 라티노 인구비율과 클린턴 지지의 관계는 선형적이지 않으며, 2012년의 오바마에 대한 라티노 지지와 2016년 클린턴에 대한 라티노 지지에는 강도의 차이가 있었다는 것을 보여준다. 또한, 라티노의 민주당 지지와 투표율이 출구조사보다 높았다는 주장은 근거가 약하며, 이러한 주장은 라티노 인구가 많은 지역에서는 적용될 수 있지만, 그렇지 않은 지역에서는 검증되기 어렵다는 점을 보여준다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the controversial claim that Latino support for Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election was much lower than that for Obama in the 2012 Presidential Election. There are many instances in which exit poll results are quite different from the actual results, expecially in the case of minority population. This discrepancy is primarily due to the fact the minority groups tend to live in concentrated areas (cities), and hence, they tend to be under-represented in survey samples. This problem was highlighted in the 2016 US presidential election, in which the results of the some states were even reversed later. This paper shows that the relationship between the support for Democratic candidate and Latino population is not linear and that the claim that Latinos actually supported Democratic candidate more than the exit poll results are only partially correct. Using the county-level data from American Community Survey and election results, and non-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAM), this paper shows that the support rate for Democratic presidential candidate tend to increase linearly in the areas with Latino population over 50%, which is not observed in the areas with low Latino population rates.
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