由出生人口锐减看中韩人口问题的异同
Comparing the Differences in Population Issues Between China and South Korea through the Rapid Decline in Births
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本文从人口社会学角度, 对2012年到2022年中韩出生人口锐减现象和形成机制进行了比较分析。主要围绕决定出生人口规模的三大因素: 育龄女性数量、年龄结构、总和生育率对中韩之间的异同之处进行了总结。结论如下: 第一, 两国都存在育龄高峰期女性锐减问题, 而这都与在实施生育限制政策时期出现的生育性别选择有关。差异在于韩国的生育限制政策相对温和, 政策调整快, 出生人口性别失调问题已经结束。而中国在较长时期推行了严格计划生育政策, 使得在今后相当长的时期内都将面临育龄女性短缺问题。第二, 两国总和生育率下降都与婚育推迟密切相关。对于韩国, 30岁以上女性的高未婚率和终身不婚率成为关键, 造成这一现象的主因则被认为是价值观变化、经济不稳定等复合压力的结果。而在中国, 30岁以前完婚, 婚后生育子女仍是社会主流。但理想子女数明显低于韩国, 更多家庭主动选择一胎。导致这一现象的主因在于中国育龄女性受教育水平的快速提高。
Abstract
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the phenomenon and causes of the rapid decline in births between China and South Korea from 2012 to 2022 from a demographic perspective. Summarized around three major factors that determine the size of the birth population: the number of women of reproductive age, age structure of women of reproductive age, and TFR. The conclusions are as follows: First, both countries face a sharp decline in the number of women of peak reproductive age, which is associated with the gender selection that occurred during the period of fertility restriction policies. The difference is that Korea’s fertility restriction policy is relatively mild, adjusted quickly, and the problem of gender imbalance in the birth population has ended. However, China has pursued a strict fertility restriction policy(Family planning policy) over a long period of time, which will leave the country facing a shortage of women of reproductive age for a long time. Second, the decline in TFR in both countries is related to the delay in marriage and childbearing. However, In South Korea, the decline in the marriage rate among women of all ages and the increase in the lifetime unmarried rate are seen as the most significant causes. This is believed to be the result of a combination of factors, such as economic insecurity, changing values, and gender inequality. In contrast, in China, marriage before early 30s and having a child after marriage is still the social norm, although the ideal number of children is significantly lower than in Korea, and more and more families are actively choosing to have only one child. The main reason for this phenomenon is the rapid increase in the education level of Chinese women of reproductive age.
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