东亚比较视野下中国的晚婚与不婚：第二次人口转变中的结构性分析

Abstract

This study focuses on the phenomena of late marriage and non-marriage in China, Japan, and South Korea, framed within the context of the Second Demographic Transition. By analyzing the demographic transition paths and census data of the three countries, the study explores potential trends in China’s future demographic transformation. The findings indicate that late marriage and non-marriage in Japan and South Korea have emerged within the broader context of economic slowdown, shifts in employment structures, and rising female educational attainment. Furthermore, marriage-biased national policies have further influenced marital choices, consequently impacting fertility recovery. Although China remains a society characterized by universal marriage and childbirth, trends toward delayed first marriage and increased lifelong singlehood have begun to accelerate. Given the economic slowdown, rising pressures on youth, higher educational attainment among women, and the existing gender imbalance, China may rapidly transition to a marriage and fertility pattern similar to that of Japan and South Korea. Therefore, it is crucial for the government to carefully reassess its policy options.