중국 출산정책을 둘러싼 제3차 인구논쟁(2004~2019) 연구: 전면 2자녀 허용 조기 실시론의 좌절

Abstract

China's population structure has changed rapidly due to side effects of implementing the "One-child" policy over a long period of time, and the birth policy has changed several times. China still suffers from deep aftereffects of low birth rates, including controversy that the population crisis is gradually approaching due to the continued decline in the birth rate. Looking at the third population debate, it is confirmed that if the "Comprehensive Two-child" policy had been implemented in 2011, couples who wish to have a second child would have given birth to an additional 13.55 million children annually. This is analyzed to have led to another birth boom, which could somewhat slow down drastic changes in the population structure, including the cliff problem of the laborable population. In 2011, it was the Chinese government's mistake to allow a couple to have two children if they were one of the couples was a sole child. The policy decision-making mistake is an analysis that could have reflected the public's demand for a change in childbirth policy in the policy and avoided it with transparent arguments. The effectiveness of the "Three children" policy announced in May 2021 is also skeptical. It is a long-term question whether the change in the perception of marriage and childbirth among young people will have the effect of the policy. The transition of childbirth policy is also important, but preparing practical measures to encourage childbirth is a prerequisite. Therefore, in the future, the Chinese government needs to continue to study the direction of "realizing the proper birth rate." In Korea, China is also the world's No. 1 foreign export market, and China's population problem is an important factor. Therefore, the study of changing trends in China's childbirth policy is significant. Continuous research and analysis are needed on changes in China's childbirth policy in the future.