중등교원의 과목별 공급예측과 수요분석

Abstract

Demand and supply of secondary teachers are forecasted using timeseries data analysis methods. The supply of total secondary teachers are forecasted by analyzing the number of total secondary teacher certificate holders and the number of secondary teacher certificate holders by subject for the next five years, and the demand of total secondary teachers are forecasted by analyzing the 7.20 Education Improvement Plan. The supply of secondary teachers for each subject are forecasted by analyzing the numbers of applicants and passers of Teacher selection examination by subjects. The demand of secondary teachers for each subject are forecasted by analyzing the ratio of teachers teaching the certificate subject and non-certificate subjects by subjects.The results show that the ratio of the total demand of secondary teachers and total supply of secondary teachers will be over 0.8 in five years, which is more than three times of recent five years. Increase of the teacher demand of Korean, English, Mathematics, Physical education, Physics, and Chemistry, and the decrease of the teacher demand of Social studies, Ethics, German, French, and Spanish are forecasted. Increase of the teacher supply of Korean, Mathematics, Japanese, Chinese, Music, and Physical education, and decrease of the teacher supply of English and Biology are forecasted. Increase of teacher supplication for some subjects by opening new departments and alleviation of restriction of teacher certification track for the students who are not in the college of education.