The Major Powers and the Two Koreas: An Uneasy Transition
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The potential for major change on the Korean peninsula has seldom seemed greater than at present. Barring a severe peninsular or regional crisis, America’s preoccupations with military conflicts in the Greater Middle East and its own internal economic upheaval*both taking place amidst the transition to a new presidency*are likely to crowd out U.S. attention to Northeast Asia. The United States and other powers have substantial incentives to maintain and (if possible) to enhance peninsular stability, but there is little clarity on how to achieve such stability, given the uncertainties related to the political leadership in North Korea, the problematic prospects for nuclear diplomacy, policy immobilism in South Korea, weak leadership and stark political divisions in Japan, and China and Russia both seeking to enhance their regional influence. The Six-Party Talks best capture this indeterminacy, enabling initial but very incomplete steps toward denuclearization in North Korea, without a shared vision of the peninsula’s future or consensus on the respective roles of the major powers. Amidst mutual suspicions, unresolved power rivalries, and divergent policy agendas, all states are groping their way toward a future that none can fully anticipate or control. The prospects for longer-term peninsular stability and regional order are both uncertain, and will pose major challenges for security and diplomacy in coming years.
Abstract
The potential for major change on the Korean peninsula has seldom seemed greater than at present. Barring a severe peninsular or regional crisis, America’s preoccupations with military conflicts in the Greater Middle East and its own internal economic upheaval*both taking place amidst the transition to a new presidency*are likely to crowd out U.S. attention to Northeast Asia. The United States and other powers have substantial incentives to maintain and (if possible) to enhance peninsular stability, but there is little clarity on how to achieve such stability, given the uncertainties related to the political leadership in North Korea, the problematic prospects for nuclear diplomacy, policy immobilism in South Korea, weak leadership and stark political divisions in Japan, and China and Russia both seeking to enhance their regional influence. The Six-Party Talks best capture this indeterminacy, enabling initial but very incomplete steps toward denuclearization in North Korea, without a shared vision of the peninsula’s future or consensus on the respective roles of the major powers. Amidst mutual suspicions, unresolved power rivalries, and divergent policy agendas, all states are groping their way toward a future that none can fully anticipate or control. The prospects for longer-term peninsular stability and regional order are both uncertain, and will pose major challenges for security and diplomacy in coming years.
참고문헌 (13)
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