China and the North Korean Nuclear Issue: Competing Interests and Persistent Policy Dilemmas
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China’s role in the North Korean nuclear issue has undergone major change in recent years. In the initial years of the Six-Party Talks, China’s role was central as facilitator, arbiter, and host of the diplomatic process. However, since 2007 the U.S.North Korea bilateral relationship has been the dominant factor in Korean nuclear diplomacy, largely marginalizing China and the other three powers involved in these efforts. As a result, China has been confined principally to hosting the talks and to rubber-stamping agreements already achieved between Washington and Pyongyang. China continues to seek an uneasy balance among three vital interests: (1) ensuring peace on the peninsula; (2) fostering North Korea’s denuclearization; and (3) seeking to preserve a continued relationship with North Korea. But it has yet to develop a full strategy for reconciling these interests and managing its policy priorities. However, China has accelerated its economic and political ties with both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Beijing therefore seems wellpositioned for the peninsula’s longer-term evolution, including its hopes that North Korea will ultimately move toward a more ‘‘reformist’’ orientation and a much-diminished emphasis on military power in its national strategy. But the dilemmas in Chinese policymaking persist, with Beijing able to influence but not control the major uncertainties, especially those related to North Korea’s future.
Abstract
China’s role in the North Korean nuclear issue has undergone major change in recent years. In the initial years of the Six-Party Talks, China’s role was central as facilitator, arbiter, and host of the diplomatic process. However, since 2007 the U.S.North Korea bilateral relationship has been the dominant factor in Korean nuclear diplomacy, largely marginalizing China and the other three powers involved in these efforts. As a result, China has been confined principally to hosting the talks and to rubber-stamping agreements already achieved between Washington and Pyongyang. China continues to seek an uneasy balance among three vital interests: (1) ensuring peace on the peninsula; (2) fostering North Korea’s denuclearization; and (3) seeking to preserve a continued relationship with North Korea. But it has yet to develop a full strategy for reconciling these interests and managing its policy priorities. However, China has accelerated its economic and political ties with both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Beijing therefore seems wellpositioned for the peninsula’s longer-term evolution, including its hopes that North Korea will ultimately move toward a more ‘‘reformist’’ orientation and a much-diminished emphasis on military power in its national strategy. But the dilemmas in Chinese policymaking persist, with Beijing able to influence but not control the major uncertainties, especially those related to North Korea’s future.
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