TOWARD A DURABLE PEACE IN NORTHEAST ASIA
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The most pressing challenge facing the people of Northeast Asia in the 21st Century is the forging of a durable peace on the Korean Peninsula. But today, prospects for peace in the region remain dim. North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, and the United States’ reluctance to engage Pyongyang in diplomatic negotiations, have created an impasse that could quickly explode into a second Korean War. The Six Party Talks holds out the hope that a “peaceful diplomatic solution” can be forged in the near future. But the process of diplomatic dialogue and resolution of the nuclear issue alone cannot dissipate the threat of war. Even if a negotiated settlement is achieved, as now seems increasingly possible but still far from certain, implementation of any accord between the United States and North Korea will prove extremely challenging. The fundamental problem is neither the participants in the process, be it two, four or six nations. Nor is it in the terms of any agreement. Inevitably, successful implementation of any accord will require mutual trust between the Washington and Pyongyang. Building that trust began in 1994 with the first US-North Korea nuclear negotiation and the forging of the Agreed Framework of 1994. But that agreement, and the subsequent trust it fos- tered, has now been rejected by both parties. If any accord is to be successfully implemented and a durable peace built in Northeast Asia, it will require nothing less than a radical transformation of the region’s balance of power and network of international relations. To many, this may seem a distant and rather idealistic wish. Looking back over the past half century, however, nurtures perspective and fosters hope that such a transformation is indeed a realistic goal. After all, half a century ago, the emergence of stability, prosperity and democracy in the region then seemed wishful thinking.
Abstract
The most pressing challenge facing the people of Northeast Asia in the 21st Century is the forging of a durable peace on the Korean Peninsula. But today, prospects for peace in the region remain dim. North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, and the United States’ reluctance to engage Pyongyang in diplomatic negotiations, have created an impasse that could quickly explode into a second Korean War. The Six Party Talks holds out the hope that a “peaceful diplomatic solution” can be forged in the near future. But the process of diplomatic dialogue and resolution of the nuclear issue alone cannot dissipate the threat of war. Even if a negotiated settlement is achieved, as now seems increasingly possible but still far from certain, implementation of any accord between the United States and North Korea will prove extremely challenging. The fundamental problem is neither the participants in the process, be it two, four or six nations. Nor is it in the terms of any agreement. Inevitably, successful implementation of any accord will require mutual trust between the Washington and Pyongyang. Building that trust began in 1994 with the first US-North Korea nuclear negotiation and the forging of the Agreed Framework of 1994. But that agreement, and the subsequent trust it fos- tered, has now been rejected by both parties. If any accord is to be successfully implemented and a durable peace built in Northeast Asia, it will require nothing less than a radical transformation of the region’s balance of power and network of international relations. To many, this may seem a distant and rather idealistic wish. Looking back over the past half century, however, nurtures perspective and fosters hope that such a transformation is indeed a realistic goal. After all, half a century ago, the emergence of stability, prosperity and democracy in the region then seemed wishful thinking.