Is Nuclear Deterrence Workable at the Brink Time in South Asia and Beyond?
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The aim of this paper is to analyze the likely reactions of the nuclear actors, mainlyin South Asia, in any prospective tensed scenario. Nuclear deterrence is generallybeing sustained in South Asia since 1971 but a turn of events might suddenlytransform this state to a degree that could prompt the decision-makers to takehasty and irrational decisions. This paper examines the doctrines, command andcontrol, safety measures, nuclear terrorism, and above all the strategic stability inSouth Asia in order to determine the probability of reaching the brink time. Thepaper concludes that even a small-group provocative act may initiate a conventionalshowdown to start with, maybe centering on Kashmir or other sensitive issues; itmay then possibly compel the actors to consider the use of nukes.
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze the likely reactions of the nuclear actors, mainlyin South Asia, in any prospective tensed scenario. Nuclear deterrence is generallybeing sustained in South Asia since 1971 but a turn of events might suddenlytransform this state to a degree that could prompt the decision-makers to takehasty and irrational decisions. This paper examines the doctrines, command andcontrol, safety measures, nuclear terrorism, and above all the strategic stability inSouth Asia in order to determine the probability of reaching the brink time. Thepaper concludes that even a small-group provocative act may initiate a conventionalshowdown to start with, maybe centering on Kashmir or other sensitive issues; itmay then possibly compel the actors to consider the use of nukes.
참고문헌 (35)
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