China and Pakistan in the Post-India-U.S. Nuclear Deal Scenario
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Nuclear relations in South Asia cannot be fully analyzed without taking intoaccount the China factor. After the May 1998 nuclear tests, a substantive amountof strategic literature has been focused on Indian and Pakistani nuclear posturesand policies, respectively. However, their integral links with China in transformingSouth Asia’s nuclear environment remains one critical component that has notbeen adequately examined. Multifaceted cooperation, competition and conflict haveengulfed this triangle since the India-U.S. nuclear deal. This deal has significantlyincreased India’s nuclear weapons capability, and hence exacerbated the securitydilemma of Pakistan and China, which has important implications for the strategicstability in the region. This paper analyses the strategic implications of this dealfor the nuclear triangle and argues that the nuclear triangle will remain complexwith inherent risks as well as pose challenges to the region’s strategic stability. China-India-Pakistan nuclear strategies will be determined by the larger triangleof U.S.-China-India relations, which will define the politics of South Asia as wellas the larger Asian landscape.
Abstract
Nuclear relations in South Asia cannot be fully analyzed without taking intoaccount the China factor. After the May 1998 nuclear tests, a substantive amountof strategic literature has been focused on Indian and Pakistani nuclear posturesand policies, respectively. However, their integral links with China in transformingSouth Asia’s nuclear environment remains one critical component that has notbeen adequately examined. Multifaceted cooperation, competition and conflict haveengulfed this triangle since the India-U.S. nuclear deal. This deal has significantlyincreased India’s nuclear weapons capability, and hence exacerbated the securitydilemma of Pakistan and China, which has important implications for the strategicstability in the region. This paper analyses the strategic implications of this dealfor the nuclear triangle and argues that the nuclear triangle will remain complexwith inherent risks as well as pose challenges to the region’s strategic stability. China-India-Pakistan nuclear strategies will be determined by the larger triangleof U.S.-China-India relations, which will define the politics of South Asia as wellas the larger Asian landscape.
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