Regional Powers Grapple with North Korea’s New Leader Kim Jong Un

Abstract

Dealing with the new DPRK leadership has become a vital security issue for the East Asian region. The Korean peninsula represents the one global hotspot where the direct interests of all the Asia-Pacific powers—China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—intersect. The new generation of leaders in Pyongyang, led by Kim Jong Un, has not fundamentally departed from Kim Jong Il’s policies. At the moment, all the major players in the region are preoccupied with their economic woes and internal political transitions, making it unlikely that we will see a new diplomatic initiative in 2012. Even if the DPRK returns to the talks, there are still major obstacles that must be overcome for much progress to be made. The impediments include the dissimilar goals and policies of the parties, the deadlock with regard to verification, and devising constraints on North Korea’s ballistic missile developments. In the interim, the United States and South Korea need to stick together to manage the DPRK’s succession and future evolution. Contingency planning should be pursued vigorously. The DPRK suffers from several serious vulnerabilities, including its potentially contested dynastic succession, increasingly horrid economic conditions, and weakening conventional forces. North Korea could slowly die due to its economic failings, but it could also abruptly collapse, likely requiring military intervention by neighboring countries that should informally establish clear rules of behavior for such a scenario.