A Historical Contingency?: North Korea’s New Leadership Meets the Rise of China and the U.S. Re-engagement Policy
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The new power relations between the United States and China suggest an increasing possibility of conflict due to the U.S. re-engagement policy and China’s vigorous rise. From the perspective of the Korean peninsula,this historical transitional period occurs ironically alongside a huge transformation in North Korea, with the death of Kim Jong-il and the emergence of the new Kim Jong-un regime. If North Korea attempts to expand its economic relations with China, improve relations with the United States and the international community, and capture the momentum to transform its relations with South Korea, all these things linked together may provide momentum for an ultimate, albeit unintended,transformation of the entire North Korean society. The diplomatic environment of the G2 relationship may possibly give North Korea a vague hope for the future and lead it to heighten the brinkmanship diplomacy inherited from the previous leadership. Against this backdrop,South Korea must strive to ensure that the only option for North Korea is to embrace the transforming environment in which the United States and China seek increased influence on the Korean peninsula, and accept the momentum for transformation.
Abstract
The new power relations between the United States and China suggest an increasing possibility of conflict due to the U.S. re-engagement policy and China’s vigorous rise. From the perspective of the Korean peninsula,this historical transitional period occurs ironically alongside a huge transformation in North Korea, with the death of Kim Jong-il and the emergence of the new Kim Jong-un regime. If North Korea attempts to expand its economic relations with China, improve relations with the United States and the international community, and capture the momentum to transform its relations with South Korea, all these things linked together may provide momentum for an ultimate, albeit unintended,transformation of the entire North Korean society. The diplomatic environment of the G2 relationship may possibly give North Korea a vague hope for the future and lead it to heighten the brinkmanship diplomacy inherited from the previous leadership. Against this backdrop,South Korea must strive to ensure that the only option for North Korea is to embrace the transforming environment in which the United States and China seek increased influence on the Korean peninsula, and accept the momentum for transformation.
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