1994-2000년 북한 기근: 초과 사망자 규모와 지역별 인구변화
The DPRK Famine of 1994-2000: Excess Mortality and Regional Population Change
0
조회
0
다운로드
11
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
이 글은 1990년대 북한 식량위기의 성격을 공식인구통계에 입각해 분석한다. 구체적으로 이 글은 1995년 이후 발표된 북한의 인구통계를 토대로 식량위기동안 발생한 기근 사망자의 규모와 지역별 인구변동의 편차를 측정한다. 그 결과 다음과 같은 사실들이 발견된다. 첫째, 북한의 식량위기는 1994-2000년간 유의미한 인구변화를 수반하는 기근으로 발전했다. 둘째, 이러한 기근으로 인해 좁게는 25-69만, 넓게는 25-117만 명의 초과 사망자가 발생했다. 셋째, 기근의 피해는 함경남도를 위시한 동북지역과 평안남도 등 서북지역에서 심각했던 반면, 황해남도를 포함한 서남지역과 평양 등 특별시에서는 상대적으로 그 피해가 적었다. 넷째, 기근으로 인한 실제적 고통은 25-117만 명의 초과 사망자 숫자가 나타내는 것보다 훨씬 심각했을 가능성이 크다. 따라서 이의 올바른 이해를 위해서는 다양하고도 적절한 여타의 기근 지표들을 새로이 개발하는 것이 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper examines the demographic impact of the DPRK food crisis in the 1990s. The population figures recently released by the DPRK government are employed to estimate the number of excess deaths and measure the regional difference in population change during the food crisis. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, the food crisis escalated into famine between 1994 and 2000. It was however not a great famine as generally conceived to claim up to 3 million hunger-related deaths in the mid 1990s. Second, the probable range of excess mortality in 1994-2000 is between 250,000 and 690,000 or between 250,000 and 1.17 million. Third, the famine was most severe in the northeastern part of the country. At province level South Hamgyung was the worst famine stricken area. Fourth, special cities including Pyongyang were relatively safe from the famine. The southwestern part of the country, notably South Hwanghae province, also suffered relatively less. Fifth, the number of excess deaths ranging between 250,000 and 1.17 million may not fully reflect the sufferings caused by the famine. To understand the true scale of the famine, therefore, it may be necessary to consider other famine indicators together with excess mortality.
참고문헌 (31)
- 안종철, "북한의 체제유지와 식량문제", 3 (1996)
- 히라타 류타로, "북한농업 실상과 농업통계의 제 문제" (1998), 농어촌진흥공사
- 장명봉, "북한의 역대 선거법과 새로운 선거법 고찰", 6(2) (1997)
- 이삼식, "북한 기아사 수준과 정책적 함의", 43(4) (2000)
- 한국통계청, "북한인구추계결과" (1999)
- Chang,Gene, "Communal Dining and the Chinese Famine of" (1997)
- Devereux, "Theories of Famine" (1993)
- DPRK, "Core Document Forming Part ofThe Reports of State Parties, Implementation of The International Covenant on Economic" (2002), United Nations Human Rights Instruments United Nations Economic And Social Council
- DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, "abulation on the Population Census of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (1995)
- DPRK, "Thematic Round Table Meeting on Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection For the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (1998)
- Eberstadt, Nicholas, "Development Structure and Performance of the DPRK Economy" (2000)
- Lau, L J, "Empirical Indications"
- "Development Potential and Social Infrastructure", Stanford University Press
- Nicholas, "The Population of North Korea" (1992)
- FAO, "Special Report: FAO", WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, 1996, ~
- "Mission to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (1999)
- "Mission to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea"
- Goodkind, Daniel, "The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic" (2001)
- Kim, "Assessing the Food Situation in North Korea" (1998)
- Korean Buddhist Sharing Movement, "The Food Crisis of North Korea: Witnessed by 1,694 Food Refugees" (1998)
- Lee, "Food Shortages And Economic Institutions In The Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (2003), University of Warwick
- Natsios, Andrew, "The Politics of Famine in North Korea" (1999)
- Noland,Marcus, "Famine and Reform in North Korea", pp.3~5 (2003)
- Ravallion, M, "Famine and Economics", 35(3) (1997)
- Robinson,Lee,Hill, "Mortality in North Korean Migrant" (1999)
- Households, "a Retrospective Study"
- UNICEF, "Update on UNICEF activities in DPR Korea" (1997)
- US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, "Status of Public Health- Democratic" (1997)
- "People's Republic of Korea: April 1997" (1997), MMWR
- Watts,Jonathan, "A Starving Nation", pp.353~9166 (1999)
- Watts, Jonathan, "A Starving Nation", pp.353~9166 (1999)