주한미군 재배치 계획의 배경과 한국의 대응방향

Abstract

The relocation of the US 2nd Infantry Division south of the Han river is related with internal changes in Korean society on the one hand, and the U.S. strategy to realign its troops on a global scale on the other. The anti-U.S. sentiment that has grown strong since last year as well as an increasing number of complaints about U.S. bases are strengthening the argument for the relocation of 2ID in northern Gyonggi Province, at greater speed than Koreans would have predicted. Though it may be far-fetched to view the backward-deployment of 2ID as a preparation for preemptive attack on North Korea, the North may still interpret the move as a military threat since it will place the troops out of the shooting range of North Korea's field artillery and multiple rocket launchers. In other words, though it was not premeditated, the talk of backward-deploying the USFK may indeed result in increased military pressure on North Korea. Now that the realignment of the USFK seems to be a fait accompli, an effort needs to be made to closely coordinate with Washington to moderate the speed at which the realignment proceeds. Otherwise, it may heighten internal security concerns and damage foreign investment in Korea. Should Washington go ahead with the relocation of 2ID than scheduled, the South Korea-U.S. governments should take seriously the possibility where the realignment is linked with the resolution of the North's nuclear threat and a reciprocal realignment of North Korea military force and thereby an arms control regime is pursued in the Korean peninsula.