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회원국 간 평화를 위한 동맹 설계의 실증적 분석

Alliance Design for Peace among Members: Empirical Analysis

황원준
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2024.02|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제30권 제1호|pp. 55-82|DOI 10.35390/sejong.30.1.202402.003

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키워드

공시성FormalityBilaterality동맹 내부 분쟁동맹 설계결박 효과양자동맹Intra-alliance DisputesAlliance DesignTethering Effect
주제분류정치외교학

초록

미국은 2023년 캠프데이비드에서 개최된한미일 정상회의를 통해 한일 간의 분쟁을 예방하고 결속을 강화하고자 했다. 회원국 간의분쟁을 예방하고 관리하기 위해 동맹은 어떻게 설계되어야 할까? 이 연구는 자유주의적제도주의를 기반으로 제도화, 공시성, 양자동맹의 변수와 직접적으로 분쟁을 예방 및 관리하는 불가침 조약 그리고 분쟁의 평화적 해결조항을 통해 가설을 세웠다. 이를 통해 어떠한 조치가 포함된 동맹에서 회원국 간의 군사분쟁이 적게 발생하는지 포아송 회귀를 통해분석하였다. 그 결과 공시성과 양자동맹의 변수에서 가장 뚜렷한 효과가 나타났으며, 분쟁의 평화적 해결 조항 역시 일정한 효과가 증명되었다

Abstract

The United States sought to prevent conflicts between the ROK and Japan while bolstering their relationship through the trilateral ROK-US-Japan summit, which took place at Camp David in 2023. This study examines how alliances can be structured to prevent and manage disputes among member states. Hypotheses are proposed using variables drawn from liberal institutionalism—namely, the degree of institutionalization, formality, and bilaterality—as well as the inclusion of non-aggression pacts and peaceful resolution of conflicts that directly address dispute prevention and management. This study employs Poisson regression to analyze the frequency of intra-alliance Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs). Findings indicate that formality and bilaterality exert the most significant influence, while peaceful dispute resolution also demonstrate notable impact

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