인구감소시대 지역소멸 대응을 위한 ‘생활권 연결’ 관점의 지역균형발전 방안 연구
A study on balanced regional development from the perspective of 'Connecting Living Areas' to address the challenges posed by local extinction age of population decline
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(연구배경 및 목적) 국토 공간의 지역균형발전을 위한 수도권 기능분산과 교통인프라 확충 등의 노력에도 불구하고, 인구의 수도권 집중이 지속되고 비수도권의 지역 총생산액이 감소하면서 지역 간 불균형이 심화되고 있다. 이에 새로운 균형발전 전략으로 광역 거점과 그 주변 지역을 중심으로 규모의 경제를 확보하려는 메가시티 전략에 대한 논의가 활발하다. 하지만 국가 전체적으로 인구가 감소한다는 점과 지역 간 인구 격차가 자연적 증감보다 사회적 증감에 영향을 받고 있다는 점을 고려하면, 메가시티 조성은 비수도권 지역 간 인구 확보를 위한 제로섬 게임이 될 수 있다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 수도권에 대응하는 광역 거점개발 관점이 아닌 중소도시 단위에서 ‘생활권 연결 관점’의 지역균형발전 방안을 탐구하였다. (연구방법) 이 연구에서는 지역의 균형발전 현황을 상대적으로 파악하기 위해 개발된 균형발전지표를 활용하여 중소도시의 상태를 진단하였다. 분석 대상인 중소도시는 인구가 50만 명 미만이면서 일반 자치단체 지위에 있는 중소도시 135개 시군으로 설정하였다. 먼저 중소도시의 균형발전 현황을 파악하기 위해서 군집분석을 통해 지역유형화를 실시하였다. 다음으로 상관관계분석을 통해 인구증감 관련 요인을 파악하였다. (결과) 분석 대상인 중소도시는 총 5개 유형으로 분류되었으며 유형별로 지역 여건이 다르고 유형 간 서로 인구증감 관련 요인뿐만 아니라 상관관계가 있는 부문도 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 서로 인접한 지역과 지역 간에도 시너지를 주고받을 수 있는 부문이 다를 수 있다는 점과 중소도시 간 생활권 연결 시 담당하는 역할을 다르게 할 필요가 있다는 점을 시사한다. (결론) 중소도시는 수도권이나 비수도권 광역 거점과 규모의 경제로 대응하여 인구유출을 막거나 인구를 유입하는 것이 현실적으로 어렵다. 메가시티라는 광역 거점에 포함되지 못하는 지역은 소멸 위험에 대응하기 위해 비슷한 위기 상태인 지역과 인구 유입 경쟁을 할 수밖에 없을 것이다. 즉, 각자도생하면서 초래될 공멸을 피하기 위해서는 중소도시 간 연합이 필요하다고 정리해볼 수 있다.
Abstract
(Background and Purpose) Efforts are continuously being made to distribute functions in the metropolitan area and expand transportation infrastructure for the balanced regional development of the national land space. Nevertheless, as the population concentration in the metropolitan area strengthens and the gross regional product in non-metropolitan areas decreases, the imbalance between regions in the country is intensifying. Consequently, active discussions surround the megacity strategy as a new approach to balanced development, aiming to secure economies of scale centered around metropolitan cities and their surrounding areas. However, considering that the population decreases across the country and that the population gap between regions is affected by social increase or decrease rather than natural increase or decrease, the creation of a megacity can be a zero-sum game to secure population between non-metropolitan areas. Therefore, this study explored the balanced regional development plan of the 'living area connection perspective' suitable for each region at the small and medium-sized city level, rather than the wide-area base development perspective corresponding to the metropolitan area. (Method) In this study, the condition of small and medium-sized cities was diagnosed by using the balanced development index developed to relatively grasp the current status of balanced regional development. Small and medium-sized cities and counties that were the targets of analysis were set as 135 small and medium-sized cities with a population of less than 500,000 and in the status of general local governments. First, regional categorization was conducted through cluster analysis to understand the current status of the balanced development of small and medium-sized cities. Next, factors related to population increase or decrease were identified through correlation analysis. (Results) Small and medium-sized cities were classified into a total of five types, and regional conditions were different for each type, and the correlated sectors as well as the factors related to population growth between types were different. These results suggest that the sectors that can exchange synergy between adjacent regions and regions may differ, and that it is necessary to play different roles in connecting the living area between small and medium-sized cities. (Conclusions) As a result of the analysis, it is practically difficult for small and medium-sized cities to respond with metropolitan or non-metropolitan bases and economies of scale to prevent population outflow or inflow population. Areas that cannot be included in the metropolitan base of Mega City will inevitably compete for population inflow with areas in a similar crisis state to cope with the risk of extinction. In other words, it can be summarized that the unions between region-specific small and medium-sized cities are necessary to avoid the emptiness.
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