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지역소멸의 요인 분석과 정책적 함의

On the Factors of Local Population Outflows and their policy implication in Korea

김재훈
한국지역사회학회 (Korean Association Of Regional Studies)|2024.03|지역사회연구 (Journal of Regional Studies)|제32권 제1호|pp. 67-107|DOI 10.22921/jrs.2024.32.1.004

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참고문헌

키워드

지방소멸지방대학인구이동중소도시population movementlocal universities공공기관 이전relocation of public institutionssmall and medium-sized cities
주제분류국제/지역개발

초록

중소도시는 농촌에 시장과 지식 및 정보를 전달하고 농촌에서 도시로, 대도시에서 농촌으로 인구 이동의 중간거점이 될 수 있는데, 우리나라에서는 정책의 사각지대에 있어서 소멸위기 지역으로 전락하고 있다. 균형발전정책이 계속됨에도 불구하고 수도권 인구집중은 계속되고, 균형발전정책은 거점도시와 기존 지역 공업도시에 집중되고 있다. 뒤늦게 지역소멸대책이 시행되고 있으나 체계적인 분석과 대책이 뒷받침되지 못하고 지역주도성의 이름 아래 지역의 현장 경험에 의존하고 있다. 본 연구는 162개 시군을 82개 인구감소지역과 80개 비감소지역으로 나누어, 인구 감소의 요인을 기술통계를 통한 실태 분석과 헤도닉 모형에 의한 계량 모형으로 분석해서 대책 수랍에 기여하고자 하는 시도이다. 통계로 보면 인구감소지역에서는 제조업과 사업자 서비스부문 등 산업의 고부가가치화와 다양화가 필요하다. 모형 분석은 편의시설(amenity), 경제변수, 혁신역량, 정책변수 등 7개 범주의 15개 변수와 2010년, 2000년, 1992년에서 2020년까지 3개 기간에 인구이동의 관계를 일반최소제곱의 방법으로 계량 분석했다. 분석 결과 주택가격 상승은 불편의 요인인데 인구 유입과 (+)관계이다. 또 응집효과가 (-)로 나타나고, 소득도 비감소지역에서는 유의수준 이상의 값을 보이지 않아서 일반적인 논의와 반대이다. 역시 공공기관 이전 등의 정책요인이 인구감소지역에 높은 (+) 값을 보여서 이 지역에 공공기관 이전이 갖는 중요성을 말해준다. 또 대학생 숫자, 취업인구 중 대졸자의 비율이 인구감소지역에서 (+)의 관계를 보여서 중소도시에 대학의 부재가 갖는 결과를 볼 수 있다.

Abstract

Small and medium-sized cities can provide rural areas with markets, knowledge and information and serve as intermediate bases for population movement from rural areas to cities and from large cities to rural areas. However, in Korea, they are in the blind spot of policy and are being relegated to areas in danger of extinction. Despite the continuation of the balanced development policy, population concentration in the metropolitan area continues, and the balanced development policy is focused on existing regional core cities and industrial cities. A paradigm shift is needed in regional policy. Although plicy measures are being implemented on populatin decreasing regions belatedly, they are rely on field experience in the name of regional initiatives without systematic analysis supporting. This study contribute to the adoption of countermeasures by analyzing the factors behind population decline through descriptive statistical analysis and econometric modeling analysis with dividing 162 cities and counties into 82 population declining areas and 80 non-decling areas. According to statistics, diversification to high value adding industries such as manufacturing and business service sectors are needed in population declining areas. The model analyzed the relationship between 15 variables in 7 categories, including amenity, economic variables, innovation capacity, and policy variables, and population movement in three periods from 2010, 2000, and 1992 to 2020 using ordinary least square method. The result is as below. Above all the rise in housing prices, which is a cause of disamanity, has a positive relationship with the influx of population. In addition, the agglomeration effect appears as (-), and income does not show a value above the significance level in non-decreasing areas, which is contrary to the general discussion. Also, policy factors such as relocation of public institutions show high (+) values in areas with declining population, showing the importance of relocating public institutions to these areas. Additionally, the number of college students and the proportion of college graduates among the employed show a positive relationship in areas with population decline, showing the significance of the absence of colleges in small and medium-sized cities.

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