Bootstrap 기법을 이용한 용당 저수지 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 불확실성 평가
Uncertainty Analysis of Future Design Floods for the Yongdang Reservoir Watershed using Bootstrap Technique
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To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfalldata in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfallarising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess theuncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was usedin this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, wasselected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probablerainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, theranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used asone of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.
Abstract
To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfalldata in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfallarising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess theuncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was usedin this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, wasselected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probablerainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, theranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used asone of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.
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