표준강수증발산지수를 활용한 미래 가뭄특성의 시계열 변화전망
Projection of Temporal Trends on Drought Characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in South Korea
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참고문헌
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초록
Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns dueto climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it isnecessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct adrought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in SouthKorea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the StandardizedPrecipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years(1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends ofdrought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitativeevaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contributeto water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.
Abstract
Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns dueto climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it isnecessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct adrought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in SouthKorea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the StandardizedPrecipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years(1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends ofdrought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitativeevaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contributeto water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.
참고문헌 (49)
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