서울 강남지역의 주택가격에 거품이 존재하는가?
Are There Speculative Price Bubbles in Gangnam, Seoul housing market?
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서울 강남지역의 주택가격에 거품이 존재하는가 ?우리나라 국민들의 상당수는 서울 강남지역의 주택가격에 거품이 있다는 것을 믿고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이런 믿음은 정책당국자나 학자들 사이에도 비교적 널리 퍼져 있으며, 이런 믿음 하에 정부정책이 펼쳐지고 있는 것으로 보여 진다 . 하지만, 실제로 서울 강남지역의 주택가격에 거품이 존재하는지 여부는 실증적으로 밝혀진 바가 없다 . 본 연구는 이런 믿음이 사실인지 여부를 확인하기 위해 서울 강남구의 주택가격 자료를 이용하여 가격거품의 존재여부를 검정하였다 . 본 연구는 가격거품의 검정을 위해 두 가지 전략을 사용하였다. 첫째는 강남구의 주택가격 자료 중에서 재건축대상 아파트의 가격
Abstract
There seems to be a widespread belief among housing experts as well as the general public that there exist speculative price bubbles in the housing market of the Gangnam area of Seoul. Mass media frequently portrays the recent rapid housing price appreciation as bubbles, and the government policies for house price stabilization in late 2003 were aimed to deflate the bubbles. However, there has been no rigorous scholarly study to test whether housing price bubbles exist in the area. In this paper, we test the existence of the bubbles by using the specification test suggested by West (1987), which is more powerful than other widely used tests such as the excessive volatility test or the co-integration test. We exclude the data for the housing units that are expected to be reconstructed (demolished and replaced with higher quality units) in the near future from our data set, because such units are like to appreciate much more rapidly than the other units when the housing supply is heavily constrained such as in Gangnam area. Our results show that the null hypothesis that there is no bubble in the housing market of the Gangnam area cannot be rejected. The test assumes a constant discount factor, which seems to be restrictive. However, if we adapted a time-varying discount factor, then our results would be stronger. Therefore, we reach the conclusion that the belief of housing bubble in the area is unsubstantiated.
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