우리나라 OFDI의 제3국 효과에 대한 실증분석과 해외투자보험에 대한 시사점
A Study on Third Country Effects on Korean Outward FDI and Foreign Direct Investment Insurance
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최근의 무역과 다국적기업의 일반적 균형이론에서는 제3국의 중요성과 다국적 기업의 복합통합전략을 강조하고 있다. 그러나 우리나라 OFDI의 제3국 효과에 대한 연구는 거의 없는 실정이다. 따라서 여기서는 우리나라 OFDI의 공간적 연결의 적절성을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석모형으로는 OECD 20개국을 포함하여 한국의 54개 투자대상국을 표본으로 한 공간시차모형을 사용하였다. 종속변수로는 한국의 연도별 OFDI flow 금액과 2년 단위의 이동평균금액을 사용하였다. 고정효과를 통제한 후 2003년부터 2014년을 분석대상기간으로 한 이 연구에서는 우리나라의 OFDI는 부분적으로 제3국 효과가 성립되는 것으로 보였다. 실증분석 결과 한국 다국적 기업의 OFDI 결정에는 투자대상국 주변국가의 시장규모가 중요하게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 공간시차변수는 대부분의 모형에서 통계적으로 유의적이지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 분석결과를 통해 한국의 OFDI는 수출플랫폼 OFDI 또는 복합 OFDI로 추정할 수 있다.
Abstract
The recent general equilibrium theory of trade and multinationals emphasizes the importance of third countries and the complex integration strategies of multinational corporations. However, few have tested third country effects for Korean OFDI except for Lee(2013). Therefore, this paper is to test for the relevance of spatial linkages for Korean outbound foreign direct investment(FDI). We estimate a spatial lag model for Korea OFDI to 54 counties(including 20 OECD countries). After controlling for fixed effects, we find for our sample period 2003-2014 that third country effects matter only partly for Korean OFDI. Empirical results show Korean multinational corporations’ OFDI decisions are affected greatly by surrounding countries’ market potential. By contrast, the spatial lag variables turn out to be statistically insignificant for most of the models. From these findings, we can possibly conclude that the motives of Korean OFDI are either pursuit of export-platform or complex OFDI.
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