환율이 말레이시아 고용에 미치는 효과 분석
Impacts of Exchange Rates on Employment in Malaysia
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환율은 수출입을 통해 산업 내 그리고 산업간 고용에 영향을 미친다. 환율이 고용에 미치는 효과에 대한 기존 연구들은 OECD 국가들에 국한되어 있다. 하지만 개도국들은 대외의존도, 세계시장에서의 마켓파워 등 여러 면에 있어서 선진국들과 다른 면을 가지고 있다. 이를 고려하여 본 연구는 대외의존도가 높은 말레이시아에 있어서 환율이 고용에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 VAR 모형을 통해 분석한다. 실증연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 말레이시아의 고용은 평가절하에 양(+)의 반응을 보였다. 둘째, 환율이 고용에 미치는 영향은 산업에 따라 차별성을 보였다. 즉 대외개방도(수출집중도와 수입점유율의 합)가 높고, 생산요소의 수입의존도가 낮은 산업의 경우, 평가절하는 말레이시아 고용에 긍정적인 효과를 미친 반면, 대외개방도가 낮은 산업의 경우 평가절하는 오히려 고용에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 경향이 있다. 셋째 분산분해 분석에 따르면, 말레이시아에 있어서 환율은 장기적인 고용변화를 설명하는데 있어서 중요한 역할을 할뿐 아니라, 이자율 보다 고용수준 결정에 보다 큰 역할을 하는 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
As well known, currency fluctuations are a substantial source of movements in relative prices. As the result, they reallocate jobs within and across industries. Previous studies focus on only developed countries such as OECD countries. But country characteristics and industry characteristics in developing countries are very different from characteristics of developed countries. As a result, the effects of fluctuations in real exchange rates on employment in developing countries can be different from those in developed countries. So to broaden understanding of the effect of real exchange rates on employment, the study for developing countries should also be performed. In this paper, I consider Malaysia having high openness to the world market. I find each industry shows a different response in both sign and magnitude to an exchange rate shock. I also find general patterns in the response of Malaysian employment to the exchange rate shock and compare them with the theoretical predictions. Most patterns found in this paper match the theory. That is, all industries with high openness and low imported input ratio show a positive sign in employment to the shocks. Most industries showing a negative sign in the employment response to the shocks belong to industries with middle or low openness. Based on panel analysis, Malaysian employment positively responds to the depreciation of exchange rate shocks. According to variance decomposition, much portion of change in Malaysian employment can be explained by exchange rates in the long run.
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