선거제도, 사회구조와 정당체계: 인도네시아 1955년과 1999년 총선거
Electoral Systems, Social Structure and Political Party Systems: Indonesia's 1955 and 1999 Elections
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Abstract
This study analyzes political party systems(or the effective number of parties, N) in votes at the basic unit of competition in the democratic elections before and after authoritarian interlude in Indonesia. Specifically, it deals with the 1955 and 1999 Indonesian parliamentary elections. This longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis intends to test key hypotheses in the comparative literature on political party systems: Duverger’s law, Taagepera and Shugart’s generalized Duverger’s rule, and Cox’s M+1 rule and interaction hypothesis. I find, first, that Indonesia’s party system, on average, has undergone little change between the two elections: in both elections, the average of N’s remained around 4.5. Second, unlike the original Duverger’s rule, the generalized Duverger’s rule does not hold good with the case of Indonesia. Finally, the interaction between high social diversity and weak electoral structure does not necessarily increase the effective number of parties, which puts Cox’s interaction hypothesis in question.
참고문헌 (20)
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