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중국의 투자동기별 해외직접투자가 수출에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 - 일대일로 가입국을 대상으로 -

The Impact of China’s OFDI on Export by Investment Motive: Evidence from Countries Joining Belt and Road Initiative of China

이선혜|박세운|장염교
한국무역보험학회 (The Korean Academy for Trade Credit Insurance)|2020.03|무역금융보험연구 (Journal of International Trade and Insurance)|제21권 제1호|pp. 215-233|DOI 10.22875/jiti.2020.21.1.013

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참고문헌

키워드

중국ChinaBelt and Road Initiative수출Export해외직접투자Outward FDI투자동기일대일로 주도권Investment Motive

초록

이 연구는 2003년부터 2017년의 기간 동안 중국의 일대일로 정책 가입국 92개국을 대상으로 중국의 해외직접투자가 중국의 수출에 미치는 효과를 공간적 영향을 고려할 수 있는 공간회귀분석을 사용하여 분석한다. 이 연구는 선행연구와는 달리, 중국 기업의 해외직접투자 동기가 수출에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 시장추구투자는 투자대상국의 GDP, 효율성 추구 동기는 투자대상국의 1인당 국민소득, 자원 투자 동기는 투자대상국의 자원수출비중, 기술 추구 동기는 투자대상국의 하이테크 제품 수출 비중으로 조사한다. 중국은 무역흑자로 조성된 풍부한 자금으로 해외직접투자를 증가시키고 있지만 중국의 수출은 미중 무역 갈등과 인건비 상승으로 수출증가세가 둔화되고 있다. 그러므로 해외직접투자의 수출에 대한 영향의 방향과 정도는 중국 수출과 경제성장에 중요하다. 실증분석 결과 해외직접투자는 전체적으로 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 그러나 시장추구 및 효율성 추구 해외직접투자는 수출에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤고, 자원추구와 기술추구 해외직접투자는 통계적으로 의미가 없었다. 제도상의 거리와 자유무역협정 변수는 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 추가적으로 중국의 수출은 클러스팅되어 있었다. 그러므로 중국의 어떤 국가에 대한 수출은 인접국가로의 수출에 영향을 미쳤다.

Abstract

Purpose : This study empirically analyzes the impact of China's OFDI on exports and also investigates the impact of investment motive on exports. Research design , data, methodology : The paper uses country-level panel data covering 92 countries joining the Belt and Road Initiative of China for the period 2003-2017 with the methodology of a spatial panel regression in consideration of a spatial effect. Results : The results show that OFDI as a whole has significantly positive effect on exports. However, market seeking and efficiency seeking OFDI have significantly negative effect, whereas resource-seeking and technology-seeking OFDI appear insignificant. Conclusions : The result that the effect of OFDI on export varies depending on the investment motives may provide some guidance to the Chinese government that "Belt and Road" Initiative may need some adjustments and details not to reduce China’s export and in some situations powerful policy orientation is necessary.

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