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말레이시아 2021 무히딘 정부 몰락과 희망연합(PH)의 위기 심화

Malaysia in 2021: The Fall of Muhyddin Government and the Deepening Crisis in Pakatan Harapan

황인원|김형종
한국동남아학회|2022.02|동남아시아연구 (The Southeast Asian Review)|제32권 제1호|pp. 201-237|DOI 10.21652/kaseas.32.1.202202.201

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참고문헌

키워드

Pandemic팬데믹코로나 팬데믹COVID-19 Pandemic국민전선희망연합Pakatan Harapan이스마일 사브리국민동맹말라카 주의회 선거사라왁 주의회 선거Ismail Sabri YaakobBarisan NasionalPerikakan NasionalMalacca State Election 2021Sarawak State Election 2021
주제분류지역학

초록

2021년 8월 무히딘(Muhyiddin Yassin) 정부의 몰락과 이스마일 사브리(Ismail Sabri Yaakob) 정부의 출범으로 말레이시아 정치 불확실성이 심화되었다. 말라카 주의회 선거에서의 국민전선(BN, Barisan Nasiaonal)이 압승하고 사라왁 주의회 선거에서 희망연합(PH, Pakatan Harapan)이 참패함으로써 2018년 이전 체제로의 복귀 가능성이 제기된다. 의회 쿠데타로 집권한 무히딘 총리의 ‘생존 게임’은 어떻게 실패로 귀결되었는가? 이 과정에서 국왕을 비롯한 여야의 중요한 정치 행위자들은 어떠한 역할을 담당하였으며, 이스마일 사브리 정부의 출범이 지니는 정치적 함의는 무엇인가? 코로나 팬데믹 상황에서 치러진 말라카, 사라왁 주의회 선거 결과를 어떻게 이해해야 하는가? 팬데믹 상황하에서 경제회복과 외교정책 변화를 시도하는 이스마일 사브리 정부의 비전과 한계는 무엇인가? 이 논문에서는 무히딘 정부의 몰락과 이스마일 사브리 정부의 출범 과정, 말라카와 사라왁 선거의 결과와 함의 분석을 통하여 2022년 실시될 것으로 예상되는 차기 총선의 과제와 향방을 가늠해보고자 한다. 아울러 정치적 불안정이 팬데믹의 심화 및 사회경제적 여건을 악화시킨 주요 요인이며 정통성의 위기는 외교 정책에 있어 중립성 유지에 중대한 과제로 대두되었음을 주장하고자 한다.

Abstract

The fall of Muhyddin government followed by the appointment of Ismail Sabri Yaakob as Prime Minster has intensified the political upheaval in Malaysia. There have been growing concerns on the possibility of returning to the pre-2018 political landscape after the Barisan Nasional's landslide victory in the Malacca state election and the Pakatan Harapan’s defeat in the Sarawak legislative assembly election in 2021. The recent political development in Malaysia raised the following questions: How has the ‘political survival game’ of Myhiddin’s coalition failed?; What roles have been played by the King (Agong) with a political impasse?; What are the implications of the results of the two elections in Malacca and Sarawak during the COVID-19 pandemic? What are the visions and limitations of new initiatives by the Ismail Sabri administration for sustainable economic growth and active diplomacy? This article charts the challenges and direction of the 15th general election by analyzing the process of government change in August and the results of the Malacca and Sarawak state elections. It argues that the political mismanagement has worsened the pandemic situation and the social and economic condition of low-income people while the lack of political legitimacy would pose a challenge in practicing neutrality in its foreign affairs.

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