말레이시아2019: 희망연합의위기와새로운 야권공조 출범
Malaysia 2019: Weakened Pakatan Harapan and Re-allied Opposition Parties
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2019년은 희망연합 정부의 개혁이 가시적 성과를 내지 못한 상황에서 수권연합으로서의 성공적 안착에 있어 정치적 부담이 증가했다. 안와르 이브라힘(Anwar Ibrahim)을 중심으로 차기 집권의 핵심으로 자리매김한 인민공정당(Parti Keadilan Rakyat)내 파벌 갈등과 총리직 이양을 둘러싼 불확실성 속에 야권의 공조와 종족 정치의 강화는 정치적 안정을 위협하는 요인으로 부상했다. 전 정권의 부패에서 비롯된 취약한 재정 여건과 국제경기 침체 등의 대외적 여건은 현 정부의 경제 정책 입안에 있어 구조적 제약 요인으로 작용했다. 보궐선거와 여론조사에서 나타난 민심의 동향은 현 정부의 국정수행 능력에 대해 호의적이지 않았다. 이슬람 관련 국제 문제와 중국에 대한 실리적 접근은 종족정치와 경제 문제와 같은 국내 정치적 사안의 연장선에서 전개되는 형국이다. 2020년은 위기에 봉착한 희망연합 체제의 정치적 운명을 결정할 중요한 시기가 될 것이다.
Abstract
The unfilled commitment to reform has increasingly become a political challenge to the Pakatan Harapn’s stable governance. Succession uncertainty from Mahathir to Anwar Ibrahim has sparked a widening rift within Parti Keadilan Rakyat, a core pillar of the coalition government. The re-allied opposition parties and re-emerged race-based politics have appeared to be factors driving political and social instability. In terms of economic management, the implementation of reform measures has been constrained by the limited fiscal resource mainly caused by the former government’s corruption and a volatile external economic environment. The results of the by-elections and opinion polls seemed to indicate that the Pakatan Harapan-led government has not yet delivered its promises in handling the people’s mandate. Mahathir has adopted a practical stance on international affairs including China and Islam-related issues which reflected its domestic concerns over race-based politics and an economic downturn. 2020 must be the critical year for the reform and for the fate of Pakatan Harapan.
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