말레이시아 2020:의회 쿠데타의 발생과 딜레마의 정치
Malaysia 2020:the Political Coup and the Politics of Dilemmas
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2020년은 정권교체에 성공한 개혁(reformarsi)세력이 반세기 넘게 지속된 구질서의 해체라는 민주화 이행기를 얼마나 안정적으로 지속시킬 수 있을 것인가를 가늠하는 중요한 분기점이었다. 그러나 2018년 5월 총선으로 독립 이후 61년 만에 최초로 여야 간 수평적 정권교체에 성공한 희망연합(PH, Pakatan Harapan)정부가 2020년 의회쿠데타로 붕괴되면서 정국은 혼돈에 빠졌다. 의회 쿠데타를 주도하며 급조된 국민동맹(PN, Perikatan Nasional)의 불안한 권력기반과 정통성 결여는 지속적인 권력다툼을 낳았다. 코로나19 팬데믹은 경제 침체와 사회문제를 야기하였는데 정치적 요인은 이에 효과적 대응을 저해했다. 정부 부채의 증가, 해외직접투자의 위축 등 구조적 문제도 대두되었다. 이 논문은 2020년 의회쿠데타로 촉발된 정치 변동과정과 의미를 다음의 핵심적 질문을 통해 분석하고자 한다. 의회 쿠데타는 어떻게 일어나게 발생하였으며, 어떠한 정치적 함의를 지니는가? 의회 쿠데타 발발이 여권은 물론 야권에 어떠한 변화를 야기하였는가? 이러한 변화는 향후 말레이시아 정치발전과 어떤 상관성을 지닐 것인가? 정치변동에 따른 경제적 외교적 영향은 무엇인가? 2020년에 전개된 일련의 정치과정은 단순히 구체제로의 복귀 혹은 민주화 이행의 유턴(U-turn)을 넘어서 ‘말레이-무슬림 정치세력’이 주도하는 종족, 종교정치의 부활의 가능성을 내포한다.
Abstract
2020 should have been a critical juncture for further stable democratisation to be committed by Pakatan Harapan(PH) or reformasi group that overturned an old political order. However, PH government collapsed by a ‘political coup’ in two years after first-ever election defeat on then ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) which had been in power for more than 60 years since independence. Politics in Malaysia has become much more volatile as unprecedented political turmoil and uncertainty caused by the weak political legitimacy of Perikatan Nasional, improvised ruling coalition, that had a majority of just two seats. An unstable political situation has made it difficult to response effectively to COVID-19 which brought negative economic and social impacts. Some economic issues such as increasing government debt and dwindling foreign directive investment have appeared to be a structural problem. This article attempts to analyse the meaning and implications of the political dynamics in 2020 by focusing on the following questions: How did the political coup occur?; What are political implications and impacts of the political coup particularly on the ruling coalition and opposition parties?; How are these political dynamics related with future political development in Malaysia?; How did the political factors affect on its economy and foreign relations? The political events in 2020 would mean not merely the return of the old order but a new beginning for political polarization with the revival of ethnic and religious politics led by Malay Muslim political forces.
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