아세안 2022: 아직 찾지 못한 출구
ASEAN in 2022: Exit Yet to Find
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2022년에도 아세안은 미얀마 사태 등이 야기한 내적 분열, 외부의 강대국 경쟁으로 어려운 한해를 보냈다. 미중 경쟁에서 미국의 대 아세안 접근이 강화된 한해였지만 미중 사이 균형을 잡는 아세안의 전략은 유지되고 있다. 정치적으로 캄보디아가 2022년 아세안 의장국으로 큰 문제없이 임기를 마무리 했다는 정도가 위안거리다. 코로나 판데믹이 아직 극복되지 못한 상황에서 아세안 국가의 경제적 회복을 위한 출구도 보이지 않는다. 오히려 우크라이나 전쟁이 가져온 식량위기, 에너지 위기, 그리고 미국 금리 인상으로 인한 글로벌 차원의 경기 둔화가 아세안 국가들을 괴롭히고 있다. 장기적으로 미국 주도의 보호무역주의가 강화되면서 아세안 경제에 부정적인 신호를 보내고 있다. 신남방정책을 뒤로 하고 나온 한국 정부의 대 아세안 정책은 아직까지 모호하며 정치적 의지도 약해 보인다. 2023년 의장국인 인도네시아는 늘 아세안의 중심을 잡아 온 국가다. 2023년 인도네시아가 어떻게 아세안을 이끌어 갈지 주목할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
ASEAN spent another hard year in 2022. Politically, ASEAN was besieged by internal division due to the situation in Myanmar and by the US-China strategic competition. The US upgraded its engagement with ASEAN, but ASEAN continued its hedging strategy between the competing superpowers. Cambodia concluded its 2022 ASEAN chairmanship without serious controversies. Despite decreasing impacts of Covid-19 pandemic, ASEAN economic recovery is still very slow. Food and energy crises caused by the war in Ukraine and the economic uncertainty incurred by the US interest rate hike put constraints on ASEAN economy further. The intensifying US protectionism does not bode well for the ASEAN economy in the long term. Korean government’s strategy toward ASEAN is still vague and lacks political will to push it strongly forward. In 2023, the leadership of Indonesia, which always has been a leading force in ASEAN and is the 2023 chair-country of ASEAN, draws attention.
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