국민연금기금 대체투자의 대안 - 항공기 리스 투자 -

Abstract

The national pension fund is forecasted to exhaust its reserve(496 trillion Korean won as of August 2015) in 2060. To meet their long-term obligations to provide social safety net to the ageing population, the fund is focusing on profit maximization in an effort to postpone the forecasted exhaustion. At a tough economic time and in a low interest rate environment, it is hard to find good investment opportunities providing high returns. Hence, the fund is looking to expand its alternative asset class investment, the newest venue being a controversial hedge fund. However, hedge fund investment is deemed highly risky which is not appropriate for the pension fund's investment objectives of controlled risk. This is an overview paper to argue that aircraft leasing can be an attractive alternative investment option for the pension fund. With the unprecedentedly high demand in aircraft, the aircraft leasing industry is expected to provide consistently high returns less correlated to the market. In addition, a different risk-return profile compared to the traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds, will reduce the fund’s total volatility, thereby making the investment portfolio less risky. Two methods of investment in aircraft leasing are suggested: first, direct investment in aircraft leasing industry and second, investment in aircraft Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates(EETCs). Competition in the global aircraft leasing industry has been increasing fast by new entrants such as sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, pension funds, private equity funds, and Chinese and Japanese banks. However, Aircraft leasing industry in Korea is nearly nonexistent missing out on opportunities. Therefore, the paper argues that the national pension fund start operating leasing businesses in Korea to start building aircraft financing systems. The fund’s chance of being successful in the global leasing industry is good considering its lower (to zero) cost of borrowing and geographical advantage of being next to the second biggest aircraft leasing market, China. Still, to increase the chance of success, the fund needs to acquire knowledge, experience, and expertise on aircraft management, the aircraft market and its supply and demand, and residual price valuation. The paper suggests that the fund acquires existing aircraft leasing companies to start a business to minimize the initial trials and errors. In addition, the paper suggests that the fund specializes in medium-sized aircraft where the most demand is or in small-sized aircraft where there are policy implications regarding regional airport and aircraft developments. The fund is recommended to invest in senior tranche EETCs providing good returns with limited risk due to enhanced credit rating. Riskier junior tranche EETC investments are not recommended since the investment’s risk profile does not fit the pension fund’s investment objectives. Note that there are industry-specific risk factors such as cyclicality and health scares. The biggest risk involved in aircraft leasing investments is airline bankruptcy, which is not likely to happen for now. Even in the event of bankruptcy, losses will be limited since investors are usually protected with collateral. Besides good return prospects, pension funds’ investing in aircraft leasing is expected to strengthen competitiveness of Korean finance and the airline industry.