COVID-19 이후 국내 항공기 도입 및 운용 변화와 전망

Abstract

COVID-19 has rapidly spread around the world from the early 2020 causing a sharp decrease in international and domestic air travel demand. Air transport industry including aircraft leasing market has been facing an unprecedented and prolonged crisis since. This study investigates changes of aircraft introduction and operation after COVID-19 and analyzes how Korean airlines and leasing companies have responded/strategized to overcome the crisis. In addition, this study attempts to forecast in what direction the aircraft leasing market will be heading to after the crisis when air travel demand recovers. We send questionnaires to 15 aircraft leasing experts working for Korean Full Service Carrier(FSC)s and Low Cost Carrier(LCC)s and leasing companies. Based upon their answers, we additionally conduct in-person and phone interviews with them. Airlines are now at crossroads of survival due to COVID-19; to survive, they reduce aircraft fleet size by canceling or postponing their plan to introduce new aircrafts and returning aircrafts without renewing contract. Leasing companies try to help airlines by cutting down and/or postponing lease payments. Request to return leased aircraft has been accumulating but leasing companies cannot easily find the next lessee during the pandemic; therefore, leasing companies secure cash by accepting a buy-out type of return. COVID-19 deteriorates airline financials, which makes airlines prefer pay by the hour(PBH) lease payment/pricing method. PBH is not yet an established method of lease payment, but a method just started being reviewed. As the pandemic continues, despite their efforts, airlines suffer from financial hardship due to lack of liquidity and business environment deterioration: FSCs are merging and some LCCs are sold. Airlines’ insolvency is transfered to leasing companies, leasing companies are also merging and closing. Financially weak airlines post-COVID are forecasted to depend more on aircraft leasing. Leasing companies’ power over airlines is expected to grow. Having had difficulties in receiving lease payments on time and retrieving aircrafts, leasing companies are likely to increase deposit and/or change contract terms to make it easier to retrieve aircrafts. To respond effectively to uncertainties during the lease period, airlines would prefer PBH lease payments and try to change conditions on early lease termination and buy-out return. Global leading airlines have fared relatively better during the pandemic. Leasing companies and aircraft lease investors are forecasted to mostly do business with and invest in global leading airlines from now on, changing their pre-COVID strategy of doing business with and investing in diverse airlines. The Korean aircraft leasing market is going through tough times due to changes in aicraft introduction and operation impacted by global air transport industry slowdown; however, there will be new aircraft demand post-COVID. This study contributes by contemplating and making suggestions to overcome the crisis and prepare for the future.