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가구유형별 구분에 의한 주택수요 예측

Prediction of Housing Demand through Classifing Household Types

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초록

The purpose of this study is to predict the future housing demand through classifing household into 12 different types. This estimation is done by using the revised Mankiw-Weil model. The flexibility of the rate of wage gains increase, the rate of change in housing expenses were taken into consideration. The result of estimation through classifying houshold into 12 types is similar to that of prior research. However some household types have distinguishing character. Equal to the number of family members, depending on the age of the head of household even if there are differences in housing demand. therefore, householders ages, as well as the number of housing household members should consider housing demand.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the future housing demand through classifing household into 12 different types. This estimation is done by using the revised Mankiw-Weil model. The flexibility of the rate of wage gains increase, the rate of change in housing expenses were taken into consideration. The result of estimation through classifying houshold into 12 types is similar to that of prior research. However some household types have distinguishing character. Equal to the number of family members, depending on the age of the head of household even if there are differences in housing demand. therefore, householders ages, as well as the number of housing household members should consider housing demand.

참고문헌 (16)

  1. 김원년, "가계조사자료를 활용한 입주유형별 주택 수요추정에 관한 연구", Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, 10(5), pp.2741~2753 (2008), 한국자료분석학회
  2. 김주원, "소형가구 연령대별 주택수요 특성 분석", 주택연구, 19(2), pp.123~150 (2011), 한국주택학회
  3. 사회・경제구조 전환기의 주택정책 패러다임 정립방안 연구, "이수욱", 국토연구원, ~ (2011)
  4. 이창무, "가구특성을 고려한 장기주택수요 예측모형 - 보완된 Mankiw & Weil 모형을 적용하여 -", 국토계획, 44(5), pp.149~161 (2009), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  5. 양현석, "노동패널조사의 가구자료를 이용한 주택수요 추정", Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, 11(4), pp.2025~2040 (2009), 한국자료분석학회
  6. 전성애, "인구구조 및 가구특성 변화를 고려한 주택수요의 예측", 국토계획, 47(3), pp.191~208 (2012), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  7. 정의철, "인구구조 변화에 따른 장기주택수요 전망에 관한 연구", 국토계획, 40(3), pp.37~46 (2005), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  8. 통계청, "인구・가구 구조와 주거특성 변화", 통계청보도자료, ~ (2012)
  9. 통계청, "장래가구추계 : 2010년~2035년", ~ (2012), 통계청보도자료
  10. 통계청, "2010 인구주택총조사 전수집계 결과(가구・주택부문)", 통계청보도자료, ~ (2011)
  11. "통계청"[URL]
  12. 현대경제연구원, "인구보너스 2. 0 시대를 준비할 때다" (2012), 경제주평
  13. 하성규, "주택정책론" (2010), 박영사
  14. OECD 한국경제보고서, "OECD", ~ (2012)
  15. Mankiw, N., "The Baby Boom, the Baby bust and the Housing Market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, pp.235~258 (1989)
  16. Swan, C., "Demography and the Demand for Housing : A Reinterpretation of the Mankiw- Weil Demand Variable", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 25, pp.41~58 (1995)

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