Bry-Boschan 알고리즘을 이용한 부산지역 선행종합지수 전환점 분석
An analysis of regional business cycle turning point with leading composite index in Busan metropolitan area using Bry-Boschan algorithm
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The purpose of this article is to analyze the regional business cycle in Busan metropolitan area, especially reviewing its leading composite index. As a result of studying, the following conclusion could be obtained. First, basic statistical data should be accurately examined to raise the usefulness of regional composite. For Busan, it would be desirable to utilize coincident composite index and indices focusing on the Intermediate Goods Shipment Index, Building Permit Area, Composite Stock Price Index, CSI Index made by the Bank of Korea, Import of Capital Goods, Loans for Facilities Investment, Net Barter Terms of Trade. Second, it is confirmed that there has been a high correlation between Busan and Korea in the concept of business cycle phases until 2005. But since then, Busan has steadily lagged behind nationwide movement pattern according to the leading composite index. What's more, time gap between Coincident and Leading Composite Index has shortened. These situations will make it hard to predict regional economic activity. So it is necessary to develop a variety of techniques to analyze many different indices such as diffusion index, econometric model, business survey and consumer sentiment indices.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the regional business cycle in Busan metropolitan area, especially reviewing its leading composite index. As a result of studying, the following conclusion could be obtained. First, basic statistical data should be accurately examined to raise the usefulness of regional composite. For Busan, it would be desirable to utilize coincident composite index and indices focusing on the Intermediate Goods Shipment Index, Building Permit Area, Composite Stock Price Index, CSI Index made by the Bank of Korea, Import of Capital Goods, Loans for Facilities Investment, Net Barter Terms of Trade. Second, it is confirmed that there has been a high correlation between Busan and Korea in the concept of business cycle phases until 2005. But since then, Busan has steadily lagged behind nationwide movement pattern according to the leading composite index. What's more, time gap between Coincident and Leading Composite Index has shortened. These situations will make it hard to predict regional economic activity. So it is necessary to develop a variety of techniques to analyze many different indices such as diffusion index, econometric model, business survey and consumer sentiment indices.
참고문헌 (24)
- 김대호, "지역별 경기지수 작성에 관한 고찰 : 4개 지역 작성 결과를 중심으로", 통계연구, 6(1), pp.53~80 (2001)
- 김명직, "우리나라 경기지표의 경기예측력에 관한 연구 : 실험적 경기동행지수 및 불황지표 작성을 중심으로", 경제학연구, 43(4), pp.33~55 (1996)
- 김신호, "경기종합지수 작성방법의 비교 연구", 통계연구, 3(1), pp.21~60 (1998)
- 우리 지역의 경기판단지표의 개발, "박경자", 한국은행 경기본부, ~ (2005)
- 서울시 경기종합지수 개발에 관한 연구, "박희석", 서울시정개발연구원, ~ (2006)
- 경기종합지수 작성에 관한 연구보고서, "서상목", 한국개발연구원, ~ (1981)
- 인천지역 경기동행종합지수 개발, "이인규", 한국은행 인천본부, ~ (2008)
- 이중식, "경기국면의 판별과 예측에 관한 새로운 방법", 경제분석, 3(1), pp.1~25 (1997)
- 전백근, "지역 경기종합지수 작성에 관한 연구", 한국응용경제학회 1999년 하계정책세미나 (1999)
- 부산지역 경기동행지수를 통한 지역경기변동의 특징분석, "정승진", 부산발전연구원, ~ (1999)
- 부산지역 경기동행종합지수와 지역경기, "주수현", 부산발전연구원, ~ (2004)
- 부산지역 경기선행종합지수 개발 및 분석, "주수현", 부산발전연구원, ~ (2004)
- 통계청, "지역 경기종합지수 작성요령", ~ (1999)
- 통계청, "경기종합지수", ~
- 지역별 경기지수 개발 연구, "한국개발연구원", ~ (2000)
- 한국은행 부산본부, "부산지역경제동향", 1997.1∼2011.5 각월호, ~ (2011)
- 경기도 경기관련 지표 개발에 대한 연구, "황상연", 경기개발연구원, ~ (2008)
- Boschan, C., "A Reassessment of Composite Indexes, In Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore. Armonk" (1990), M. E. Sharpe
- Chatfield, C., "The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, Sixth Edition" (2003), CRC Press
- Hamilton J. D., "Time Series Analysis" (1994), Princeton University Press
- Harris, R., "Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting" (2003), Halsted Press
- Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, "Moore, G. H.", NBER, ~, pp.Occasional Paper 103 (1967)
- Kaiser, R., "Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series" (2000), Springer Verlag
- A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators, "Stock, J. H.", National Bureau of Economic Research., ~, pp.Working Paper 2772 (1988)