우리나라 인근과 유럽의 계절에 따른 강수와 기온의 관계 및 RCP8.5 시나리오에 기반한 미래 전망
The Seasonal Correlation Between Temperature and Precipitation Over Korea and Europe and the Future Change From RCP8.5 Scenario
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
It is imperative to understand the characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns under the climate system due to its impact on climatic factors. Thus this study focused on analyzing the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the relationship between precipitation and temperature regionally. Here we used monthly gridded observational data (i.e., CRU-TS3.2, NOAA-20CR V2c) and HadGEM2-AO climate model by RCP8.5, for the period of 1960~1999 and 2060~2099. The experiment results indicated that the negative relationship was presented over East Asia and Europe during summer. On the other hand, at around Korea (i.e. EA1: 31oN~ 38oN, 126oE~140oE) and Northwestern Europe (i.e. EU1: 48oN~55oN, 0oE~16oE) in winter, strong positive relationship dominate due to warm moist advection come from ocean related to intensity variation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. It was found that values of positive relation in EA1 and EU1 at the end of the 21st century is regionally greater than at the end of 20th century during winter since magnitude of variation of the EAWM and NAO is projected to be greater in the future as result of simulation with RCP 8.5. Future summer, the negative correlations are weakened in EA1 region while strengthened in EU1 region. For better understanding of correlations with respect to RCP scenarios, a further study is required.
Abstract
It is imperative to understand the characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns under the climate system due to its impact on climatic factors. Thus this study focused on analyzing the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the relationship between precipitation and temperature regionally. Here we used monthly gridded observational data (i.e., CRU-TS3.2, NOAA-20CR V2c) and HadGEM2-AO climate model by RCP8.5, for the period of 1960~1999 and 2060~2099. The experiment results indicated that the negative relationship was presented over East Asia and Europe during summer. On the other hand, at around Korea (i.e. EA1: 31oN~ 38oN, 126oE~140oE) and Northwestern Europe (i.e. EU1: 48oN~55oN, 0oE~16oE) in winter, strong positive relationship dominate due to warm moist advection come from ocean related to intensity variation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. It was found that values of positive relation in EA1 and EU1 at the end of the 21st century is regionally greater than at the end of 20th century during winter since magnitude of variation of the EAWM and NAO is projected to be greater in the future as result of simulation with RCP 8.5. Future summer, the negative correlations are weakened in EA1 region while strengthened in EU1 region. For better understanding of correlations with respect to RCP scenarios, a further study is required.
참고문헌 (16)
- Richard P. Allan, "Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations", Surveys in Geophysics, 35(3), pp.533~552 (2014), Springer Nature[DOI]
- "Evaluation of the Had-GEM2 model" (2008)[URL]
- Hirokazu Endo, "Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate", Geophysical Research Letters, 41(5), pp.1704~1711 (2014), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- A. K. Fleig, "Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(7), pp.3093~3107 (2015), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
- Chris K. Folland, "The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future", Journal of Climate, 22(5), pp.1082~1103 (2009), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Hartmann, D. L., "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.159~254 (2013), Cambridge University Press
- Isaac M. Held, "Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming", Journal of Climate, 19(21), pp.5686~5699 (2006), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Hurrell, J. W., "Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation", Science, 269, pp.676~679 (1995)
- Jong-Ghap Jhun, "A New East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Associated Characteristics of the Winter Monsoon", Journal of Climate, 17(4), pp.711~726 (2004), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Yun-Young Lee, "Influence of the East Asian winter monsoon on the storm track activity over the North Pacific", Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(D9) (2010), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Jascha Lehmann, "The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes", Scientific Reports, 5(1), pp.17491~ (2015), Springer Nature[DOI]
- Madden, R. A., "The correlation between temperature and precipitation in the United States and Europe", Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, pp.142~147 (1978)
- Kira Rehfeld, "Warmer and wetter or warmer and dryer? Observed versus simulated covariability of Holocene temperature and rainfall in Asia", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 436, pp.1~9 (2016), Elsevier BV[DOI]
- Kevin E. Trenberth, "Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature", Geophysical Research Letters, 32(14), pp.L14703~ (2005), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- 윤재승, "북태평양 스톰트랙 활동과 동아시아 겨울 몬순의 상관성에 관한 CMIP5 모델의 모의 성능", 대기, 25(2), pp.295~308 (2015), 한국기상학회
- Zhao, W., "The relationship between precipitation and temperature over the contiguous United States", J. Climate, 6, pp.1232~1236 (1993)