RegCM4를 이용한 RCP(2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) 시나리오 별 남한에서의 상세 기후변화 전망
Projection of Fine-Scale Climate Changes over South Korea Based on the RCP(2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) Scenarios Using RegCM4
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In this study, we analyzed the simulation skills of RegCM4 for the temperature and precipitation over South Korea for the 30-year period(1981-2010) and projected mid-21st century(2021-2050) climate change, based on RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios(2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). The HadGEM2-AO data provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Research were used as the lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM4 with 12.5km of horizontal resolution. In general, the RegCM4 well simulated the temporal and spatial variations of temperature and precipitation compared with CRU(Climate Research Unit) data. However, the RegCM4’s simulation skills are clearly dependant on the seasons and geographic locations. The RegCM4 well simulated daily variation of observed precipitation from June to mid-July before the full activation of the Changma front(bias: -1.09mm/day, Corr.: 0.84). But the model’s performance drastically decreased(bias: -4.02mm/day, Corr.: 0.41) after mid-July to the end of August. It means that the heavy rainfalls that occurred due to the meso-scale convective systems or typhoons were not properly simulated. However, the RegCM4’s performance is better than that of HadGEM2-AO for heavy rainfalls greater than 50mm/day. The annual mean temperature over South Korea in the mid-21st century is expected to increase by about +1.42°C to +1.50°C against the present irrespective of RCP scenarios. The future precipitation change over South Korea is projected to be very small regardless of RCP scenarios and seasons. However, the spring precipitation in the RCP4.5 and 6.0 scenarios are projected to increase.
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the simulation skills of RegCM4 for the temperature and precipitation over South Korea for the 30-year period(1981-2010) and projected mid-21st century(2021-2050) climate change, based on RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios(2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). The HadGEM2-AO data provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Research were used as the lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM4 with 12.5km of horizontal resolution. In general, the RegCM4 well simulated the temporal and spatial variations of temperature and precipitation compared with CRU(Climate Research Unit) data. However, the RegCM4’s simulation skills are clearly dependant on the seasons and geographic locations. The RegCM4 well simulated daily variation of observed precipitation from June to mid-July before the full activation of the Changma front(bias: -1.09mm/day, Corr.: 0.84). But the model’s performance drastically decreased(bias: -4.02mm/day, Corr.: 0.41) after mid-July to the end of August. It means that the heavy rainfalls that occurred due to the meso-scale convective systems or typhoons were not properly simulated. However, the RegCM4’s performance is better than that of HadGEM2-AO for heavy rainfalls greater than 50mm/day. The annual mean temperature over South Korea in the mid-21st century is expected to increase by about +1.42°C to +1.50°C against the present irrespective of RCP scenarios. The future precipitation change over South Korea is projected to be very small regardless of RCP scenarios and seasons. However, the spring precipitation in the RCP4.5 and 6.0 scenarios are projected to increase.
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