WMO LC-LRF 검증 지수를 활용한 기후예측시스템(GloSea6)의 계절예측 성능 비교 평가

키워드

참고문헌 (73)

1. Athanasiadis, P. J., "A multisystem view of wintertime NAO seasonal predictions", J. Climate, 30, pp.1461~1475 (2017)[DOI]
2. Bock, L., "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool", JGR Atmospheres, 125, pp.e2019JD032321~ (2020)[DOI]
4. Chang, P. -H., "Global ocean data assimilation and prediction system in KMA : Description and assessment", Atmosphere, 31, pp.229~240 (2021)[DOI]
5. Choo, S. -H., "Assessment of assimilation impact of Argo float observations in marginal seas around Korean Peninsula through observing system experiments", Atmosphere, 31, pp.283~294 (2021)[DOI]
6. Davis, P., "An improved approach for land-surface initialization in the Met Office’s seasonal forecasting system (GloSea)", Int. Conf. Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction (2018), NCAR
7. Duan, W., "The ‘spring predictability barrier’for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism : results from a fully coupled model", Int. J. Climatol, 33, pp.1280~1292 (2013)[DOI]
8. Folland, C. K., "How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead?", Int. J. Climatol, 32, pp.801~818 (2012)[DOI]
9. Graham, R. J., "An assessment of seasonal predictability using atmospheric general circulation models", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 126, pp.2211~2240 (2000)[DOI]
10. Graham, R. J., "A performance comparison of coupled uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model", Tellus A : Dyn. Meteor. Oceanogr, 57, pp.320~339 (2005)[DOI]
11. Ham, H., "Performance assessment of weekly ensemble prediction data at seasonal forecast system with high resolution", Atmosphere, 27, pp.261~276 (2017)[DOI]
12. Ham, H., "Performance assessment of monthly ensemble prediction data based on improvement of climate prediction system at KMA", Atmosphere, 29, pp.149~164 (2019)[DOI]
13. Ham, Y. -G., "The origin of systematic forecast errors of extreme 2020 East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in GloSea5", Geophys. Res. Lett, 48 (2020)[DOI]
14. Heo, S. -I., "An assessment of applicability of heat waves using extreme forecast index in KMA climate prediction system(GloSea5)", Atmosphere, 29, pp.257~267 (2019)[DOI]
15. Hodson, D. L., "Signal-to-noise and predictable modes of variability in winter seasonal forecasts", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 149, pp.2598~2616 (2023)[DOI]
16. Hong, D. -C., "Downward influences of Sudden Stratospheric Warming(SSW)in GloSea6 : 2018 SSW case study", Atmosphere, 33, pp.493~503 (2023)[DOI]
17. Hyun, S. -H., "Verification of the KMA ocean model NEMO against Argo floats and drift buoys : a comparison with the up-to-date US Navy HYCOM", Atmosphere, 32, pp.71~84 (2022)[DOI]
18. Hyun, Y. -K., "Reliability assessment of temperature and precipitation seasonal probability in current climate prediction systems", Atmosphere, 30, pp.141~154 (2020)[DOI]
19. Hyun, Y. -K., "The KMA Global Seasonal forecasting system(GloSea6)– Part 2 : Climatological mean bias characteristics", Atmosphere, 32, pp.87~101 (2022)[DOI]
20. Hyun, Y. -K., "Characteristics of Signal-to-Noise paradox and limits of potential predictive skill in the KMA’s Climate Prediction System(GloSea)through ensemble expansion", Atmosphere, 34, pp.55~67 (2024)[DOI]
21. Ineson, S., "Interannaul climate simulation and predictability in a coupled TOGA GCM", Mon. Wea. Rev, 125, pp.721~741 (1997)[DOI]
22. Ji, H. -S., "Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture(SMAP)in KMA GloSea6 : The results of the first preliminary experiment", Atmosphere, 32, pp.395~409 (2022)[DOI]
23. Jung, M. -I., "Assessment of 6-month lead prediction skill of the GloSea5 hindcast experiment", Atmosphere, 25, pp.323~337 (2015)[DOI]
24. Jung, M. -I., "Assessment of stratospheric prediction skill of the GloSea5 hindcast experiment", Atmosphere, 26, pp.203~214 (2016)[DOI]
25. Kang, D., "Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in boreal winter by dynamical seasonal forecasting systems", Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, pp.3577~3585 (2014)[DOI]
26. Kim, D. -K., "Predictability of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns in GloSea5 hindcast experiments up to 6 Weeks", Atmosphere, 29, pp.295~309 (2019)[DOI]
27. Kim, H., "Representation of boreal winter MJO and its teleconnection in a dynamical ensemble seasonal prediction system", J. Climate, 31, pp.8803~8818 (2018)[DOI]
28. Kim, H., "MJO propagation processes and mean biases in the SubX and S2S reforecasts", J. Geophy. Res. Atmos, 124, pp.9314~9331 (2019)[DOI]
29. Kim, H., "The KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System(GloSea6)-Part 1 : Operational system and improvements", Atmosphere, 31, pp.341~359 (2021)[DOI]
30. Kim, J. -Y., "Assessment on the East Asian summer monsoon simulation by improved Global Coupled(GC)model", Atmosphere, 31, pp.563~476 (2021)[DOI]
31. Kim, S. -W., "Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction skills of GloSea5 model: Part 1. Geopotential height in the northern hemisphere extratropics", Atmosphere, 28, pp.233~245 (2018)[DOI]
32. Kim, S. -W., "Optimal ensemble size for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system", M. S, Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, pp.2019
33. Kim, T., "Characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific related to extreme ENSO and a climate regime shift in sub-seasonal forecasting with GloSea5", Climate Dyn, 61, pp.2637~2653 (2023)[DOI]
34. "Long-range Forecast Work Manual" (2015)[URL]
35. "2016 Year Book" (2017)[URL]
36. "2018 Year Book" (2019)[URL]
37. "2020 Year Book" (2021)[URL]
38. "2022 Year Book" (2023)[URL]
39. "2023 Year Book" (2024)[URL]
40. Lee, J. -H., "Assessment of model performance in East Asia based on the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble", J. Climate Change Res, 12, pp.461~478 (2021)[DOI]
41. Lee, J., "Assimilation of snow water equivalent from AMSR2and IMS satellite data utilizing the local ensemble transform Kalman filter", Geosci. Model Dev (2023)[DOI]
42. Lee, M. -I., "Validation of the experimental hindcasts produced by the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system", Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci, 50, pp.307~326 (2014)[DOI]
43. Lee, S. -J., "Prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon indices in KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System(GloSea5)", Atmosphere, 30, pp.293~309 (2020)[DOI]
44. Lee, S. -M., "Verification and comparison of forecast skill between global seasonal forecasting system version 5 and unified model during 2014", Atmosphere, 26, pp.59~72 (2016)[DOI]
45. Lee, S. -M., "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using GloSea5hindcast", Atmosphere, 30, pp.209~220 (2020)[DOI]
46. Lee, S. -M., "The seasonal forecast characteristics of tropical cyclones from the KMA’s Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea6-GC3.2)", Atmosphere, 34, pp.97~106 (2024)[DOI]
47. Lim, S. -M., "Prediction skill of East Asian precipitation and temperature associated with El Nino in GloSea5 hindcast data", Atmosphere, 28, pp.37~51 (2018)[DOI]
48. Lim, S. -M., "Application of land initialization and its impact in KMA’s operational climate prediction system", Atmosphere, 31, pp.327~340 (2021)[DOI]
49. Lockwood, J. F., "Predictability of European winter 2020", 2021: Influence of a mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming, 2022, pp.23, e1126~
50. MacLachlan, C., "Description of GloSea5 : The Met Office high resolution seasonal forecast system", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 141, pp.1072~1084 (2015)[DOI]
51. McPhaden, M. J., "Tropical pacific ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers", Geophys. Res. Lett, 30, pp.1480~ (2003)[DOI]
52. Moon, J. -Y., "Assessment of MJO simulation with Global Coupled (GC) model 2 and 3.1", Atmosphere, 32, pp.235~246 (2022)[DOI]
53. Murray, R., "Recent developments in long-range forecasting in the Meteorological Office", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 96, pp.329~336 (1970)[DOI]
54. "Evaluation of the 2023 Forecasts Performance of the Operational Climate Prediction System (GloSea6)" (2024)[URL]
55. Oh, J., "Influence of UTLS Ozone on the QBO-MJO connection : A case study using the GloSea5 model", Atmosphere, 32, pp.223~233 (2022)[DOI]
56. Palmer, T. N., "Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonalto-interannual prediction(DEMETER)", Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 85, pp.853~872 (2004)[DOI]
57. Park, H. -S., "Global ocean data assimilation and prediction system 2 in KMA : Operational system and improvements", Atmosphere, 33, pp.423~440 (2023)[DOI]
58. Park, S., "Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble, ocean coupled ensemble, and GloSea5", Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci, 53, pp.393~401 (2017)[DOI]
59. Park, Y. -H., "Assessment of the prediction performance of ensemble size-related in GloSea5 hindcast data", Atmosphere, 31, pp.511~523 (2021)[DOI]
60. Scaife, A. A., "Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters", Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, pp.2514~2519 (2014)[DOI]
61. Scaife, A. A., "Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere", Atmos. Sci. Lett, 17, pp.51~56 (2016)[DOI]
62. Seo, E., "Improvement of soil moisture initialization for a Global Seasonal Forecast System", Atmosphere, 26, pp.35~45 (2016)[DOI]
63. Seo, E., "Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts : mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events", Climate Dyn, 52, pp.1695~1709 (2019)[DOI]
64. Sheshadri, A., "Midlatitude error growth in atmospheric GCMs:The role of eddy growth rate", Geophys. Res. Lett, 48, pp.e2021GL096126~ (2021)[DOI]
65. Singh, D., "California Winter Precipitation Predictability : Insights from the Anomalous 2015~2016 and 2016~2017 Seasons", Geophys. Res. Lett, 45, pp.9972~9980 (2018)[DOI]
66. Son, S. -W., "Extratropical prediction skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction models", J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 125, pp.e2019-JD031273~ (2020)[DOI]
67. Song, K., "Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction of GloSea5 model: Part 2. Stratospheric Sudden Warming", Atmosphere, 28, pp.123~139 (2018)[DOI]
68. Stan, C., "The forecast skill of the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes seasonal oscillation and its impact on the surface air temperature", Geophys. Res. Lett, 49, pp.e2021GL095543~ (2022)[DOI]
69. Torrence, C., "The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño-Southern oscillation", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 124, pp.1985~2004 (1998)[DOI]
70. Webster, P. J., "Monsoon and ENSO : Selectively interactive systems", Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 118, pp.877~926 (1992)[DOI]
71. Webster, P. J., "The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system", Meteor. Atmos. Phys, 56, pp.33~55 (1995)[DOI]
72. Wedd, R., "ACCESS-S2 : the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system", J. So. Hemisph. Earth, 72, pp.218~242 (2022)[DOI]
73. 2023 Climate State Report, "WMO", World Meteorological Organization, 47~ (2024)

관련 논문AI추천