공적(公的) 채무자 구제제도의 선택과 잠재파산상태의 지속에 관한 연구
A Study on Factors Affecting the bankruptcy choice and the Duration of Potential Bankruptcy Situation in Debtors
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한국의 IMF 외환위기 이후 정부의 신자유주의 정책에 의해 양산된 새로운 사회집단인 채무불이행자 문제는 가계부채 문제와 함께 심각한 사회경제적 문제로 대두되고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 작동하고 있는 정부의 새 출발 정책(fresh start policy)인 공적 채무자 구제제도를 중심으로 개인 채무자들의 개인파산절차 선택과 잠재파산상태의 지속 현상을 분석하고 있다. 특히, 본 연구에서는 사건사(EHA) 분석방법을 통해 개인 채무자들의 잠재파산상태의 지속기간이 상이하게 나타나는 양상을 실증적으로 분석하는 데 중점을 두었다. 분석결과, 지출충격이 발생하였을수록, 금융회사의 무분별한 대출행태가 심할수록, 채무자의 청산가치가 높을수록 개인 채무자의 파산가능성이 높아져 잠재파산상태에서 개인파산으로의 전환은 빠르게 일어나며, 고금리대출영업행태가 심할수록, 과다대출수준이 클수록, 기초생활을 보장받을수록, 채권자들의 채권회수 노력이 있을수록 개인 채무자의 파산가능성이 낮아져 잠재파산기간이 길어질 가능성이 크다는 사실을 확인할 수 있었다. 이와 같이 본 연구는 개인 채무자들의 개인파산절차 선택과 잠재파산상태의 지속에 미치는 다양한 요인들의 차별적인 영향을 실증적으로 규명하고 있다는 점에서 기존의 연구와 차별성을 지니고 있다.
Abstract
Recently, the level of increasing household debt is so serious problem in South Korea. This problem generates to be in default on debt or file for bankruptcy as well as social problems like a suicide, poverty and crime. However, many studies have not been interested in the behavior of debtors because of the limits of data collection. Thus this paper conduct a unique study that has rarely conducted to another researchers. This paper empirically analyzes why debtors in potential bankruptcy situation don't file for bankruptcy in South Korea. This paper use a recent data set that has not been available to another researchers. This data set consists of 1,375 cases of bankruptcy filing codes from July 2013 to March 2016. Particularly, this study focus on the duration differences among debtors in potential bankruptcy situation using EHA(Event History Analysis) methodology. As a result of analysis, some interesting findings are reported. Firstly, debtors affected by the experience of expense shock, the unbridled lending behavior of financial company, and the bigger liquidation value increase the hazard function in the probability of bankruptcy. Secondly, Influenced by the experience of actions by the relevant laws, the recipient of national basic livelihood guarantees, the higher interest loan of financial company, the bigger size of loan by financial company, debtors' hazard function in the probability of bankruptcy decreases. Consequently, this paper finds a strong evidence for the hypothesis that debtor's duration of potential bankruptcy situation fastly or slowly translate into filing for bankruptcy as affected by predatory lending effect, institutional complementarities effect, the events of economic crisis and economic behaviors in debtors. Considering this characteristics of many debtors in potential bankruptcy situation in South Korea, the efforts to systematic improvement of debt renegotiation for operating social safety net and fresh start policy are highly requested.
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