경영자 과신과 인수합병 성과에 관한 연구
The effect of CEO overconfidence on merger performance
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초록
본 연구는 2000년부터 2012년까지 미국 상장기업 간의 인수합병 사건을 분석하여 인수기업 경영자의 과신이 인수합병의 장·단기성과에 어떠한 영향을 주는지 분석하였다. 이를 통해 과신 성향이 높은 비합리적인 경영자가 인수합병 과정에서 잘못된 판단으로 주주의 부를 훼손하고 자원을 낭비하는지를 분석하는 데 목적을 두고 있다. 분석을 위해 인수기업의 인수합병 공시일 전후 누적초과수익률과 인수합병 공시 이후 장기 주식성과를 측정하였다. 또한, Loughran and McDonald(2011)의 모형을 활용하여 미국증권거래소의 10-K 문서에 사용된 단어를 분석하였고, 이를 경영자 과신의 대용 측정치로 사용하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 인수기업 10-K 문서에 나타난 경영자의 과신 정도가 높을수록 인수기업의 공시 시점 시장반응은 부정적으로 나타났다. 둘째, 인수기업 10-K 문서에 나타난 경영자의 과신 정도가 높을수록 인수기업의 장기성과는 저조한 것으로 나타났다. 인수기업의 특성, 대금결제방식, 거래의 종류를 나타내는 변수들을 사용하여 통제한 후에도 경영자의 과신과 인수기업의 장기성과는 유의한 음(-)의 관계가 나타났다. 또한, 경영자의 과신과 인수합병 장기주식성과 사이의 음(-)의 관계가 인수합병 공시 이후 시간이 지날수록 더욱 강해지는 것을 확인하였다. 따라서 과도한 자신감을 가진 경영자는 기업 가치 제고에 반하는 인수합병거래를 진행하고, 이로 인해 장기간에 걸쳐 인수기업 주주의 부가 훼손된다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.
Abstract
This research examines how CEO overconfidence affects short-term and long-term performance of merger and acquisition between US listed companies from 2000 to 2012. The purpose of this study is to analyze whether an irrational CEO with high overconfidence tend to undermine shareholders' wealth and waste resources with misjudgment in the merger and acquisition process. The text analysis tool from Loughran and McDonald(2011) is used to analyze the words on the US SEC's 10-K documents and use it as a proxy for CEO overconfidence. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows. First, the higher degree of CEO overconfidence appears in 10-K document, the more significantly negative market reaction at merger announcement is. Second, the higher degree of CEO overconfidence appears in 10-K document, the lower long-term performance of merger and acquisition is. Even after controlling for characteristics of the acquiring companies, payment methods, and type of transactions, CEO overconfidence and long-term performance of merger show a significantly negative relationship. This research also find that the negative relationship between CEO overconfidence and long-term stock performance is stronger as time goes on after the merger announcement. As a result, this study confirms that overconfident CEOs proceed with merger and acquisition against the enhancement of corporate value.
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