역대 선거 후 설문조사자료를 통해 본 제18대 대통령 선거 전망
Forecasting 18th Korean Presidential Election Using Post-Election Survey Data
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초록
본 논문은 과거 4번의 대통령 선거 직후 실시된 유권자 설문자료를 분석함으로써 2012년의 제 18대 대통령 선거의 결과를 예측하는 것에 있다. 예측은 두 단계로 이루어졌다. 첫 번째로 역대 대통령 선거에서 한국 유권자들이 보인 투표 행태가 교육수준, 세대, 성별, 그리고 지역에 따라 어떻게 다른지, 그리고 이러한 사회경제적 특성에 따른 투표 행태가 민주화 이후 시간의 흐름에 따라 어떻게 변화하는지 통계적으로 분석하였다. 두 번째로 2010년 인구총조사를 통해 현재 한국 유권자에서 각 사회경제적 특성을 지닌 사람들의 인구비중을 계산하여 합산하였다. 결과적으로 새누리당 후보와 민주통합당 후보 사이의 양자구도 하에서 새누리당 후보가 52% 남짓의 득표율로 승리를 거두는 것으로 예측되었다. 결론에서는 본 논문에서 실시한 분석의 한계와 의미에 대해 논의한다.
Abstract
This paper, based on four post-election survey data, attempts to forecast the result of the 18th Korean presidential election in 2012. Forecasting proceeds in two stages: first, we conduct a series of statistical analysis that show how Korean voters with different soico-economic characteristics—education, generation, sex, and region—have voted and how these voting patterns have changed over time since the democratization; and second, we multiply these patterns with the current demographic composition in the Korean electorate available from the 2010 Population Census. The resulting forecasts predict that the candidate of the Saenuri Party will win the presidential election over the candidate of the Democratic United Party with 52% of the popular votes. We conclude with discussing the limitations and implications of the forecasting.
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