Patterns and Causes of Korean Voters’ Candidate Choice in the 2012 Presidential Election
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Drawing on the data obtained from the pre- and post-election panel surveys, this paper describes and explains Korean voters’ candidate choice in the December 19 presidential election of 2012. Park Geun-hye defeated Moon Jae-in by receiving 51.6 percent of the vote. Persisting regional cleavage as well as young-old generational cleavage was clearly revealed by a sharp contrast in candidate choice. Analysis suggests that the strong influence of region and age variables are largely intermediated by other independent variables, such as party identification, ideological self-placement, retrospective judgment of past or outgoing President’s job performance, and perception of candidate traits. These attitudinal variables as a whole have a direct impact on candidate choice, and demonstrate outstanding explanatory power. Conceptual frameworks derived from time-honored studies on voting in western democracies have proven their empirical relevance to the candidate choice in Korea’s 2012 presidential election.
Abstract
Drawing on the data obtained from the pre- and post-election panel surveys, this paper describes and explains Korean voters’ candidate choice in the December 19 presidential election of 2012. Park Geun-hye defeated Moon Jae-in by receiving 51.6 percent of the vote. Persisting regional cleavage as well as young-old generational cleavage was clearly revealed by a sharp contrast in candidate choice. Analysis suggests that the strong influence of region and age variables are largely intermediated by other independent variables, such as party identification, ideological self-placement, retrospective judgment of past or outgoing President’s job performance, and perception of candidate traits. These attitudinal variables as a whole have a direct impact on candidate choice, and demonstrate outstanding explanatory power. Conceptual frameworks derived from time-honored studies on voting in western democracies have proven their empirical relevance to the candidate choice in Korea’s 2012 presidential election.
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