선거경쟁도와 선거품질인식: 2016년 총선에서 나타난 선거구 투표율의 매개효과를 중심으로
Electoral Competitiveness and Perceived Election Quality: Unraveling the Mediational Role of District-level Turnout in the 2016 Korean Legislative Election
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선거경쟁도는 선거품질인식에 부정적 영향을 주는가? 미국선거에 관한 기존의 경험연구들은 경쟁도가 높은 선거일수록 선거와 정부에 대한 부정적 인식이 커진다는 점을 발견해 왔고, 이는 선거민주주의 이론의 예상과 반대되는 경험적 발견이다. 본 연구는 선행연구들의 일반적 발견들을 부정하지 않으면서도, 선거경쟁도가 유권자들의 선거품질 인식에 미치는 간접적 효과를 간과했다고 주장한다. 이론적으로 선거구 수준에서 선거경쟁도는 투표참여율을 견인하고, 이와 같이 상승된 선거분위기는 유권자들의 선거품질인식에 긍정적 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 2016년 한국 총선 유권자 설문자료와 다층모델을 활용하여 분석한 결과, 선거구 선거경쟁도는 유권자들의 선거품질에 긍정적 및 부정적 효과를 동시에 가지는데, 긍정적 효과가 부정적 효과에 비해 큰 것으로 나타났다. 분석 결과는 기존의 경험연구들을 부정하지 않으면서도 선거경쟁도의 민주적 효과를 보여주었다는 의의를 가진다.
Abstract
Does electoral competitiveness lead to a negative evaluation of election quality among voters? Prior studies on US legislative elections have consistently found that highly contested elections breed public negativity about elections and the government, which contradicts democratic theories. While we agree with these studies, we argue that they neglect the indirect effects of electoral competitiveness on perceived election quality. We contend that electoral competitiveness increases turnout at the district level and that the increased turnout, in turn, promotes perceived election quality at the individual level. Using multilevel mediation modeling and responses from survey data from the 2016 Korean legislative election, we found empirical evidence that electoral competitiveness has both positive and negative effects on perceived election quality. However, the positive effect is greater than the negative one, thereby supporting democratic theories while not rejecting altogether the prior studies against competitive elections.
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