신생민주주의 국가에서의 회고투표와 정치적 책무성: 2020년 몽골 제8회 국회의원선거를 중심으로
Retrospective Voting and Democratic Accountability in New Democracies: Evidence from the 2020 Mongolian Legislative Election
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회고투표는 현대 대의민주주의에서 대표자들의 민주적 책무성을 담보하는 가장 좋은 방법 중 하나이다. 그동안 회고투표에 대한 연구는 서구 민주주의를 중심으로 폭넓게 검증되어 왔으나 신생민주주의 국가들에서는 상대적으로 적게 연구되어 왔다. 특히 아시아의 경우 한국, 대만, 일본을 제외하면 회고투표에 대한 연구는 거의 진행되지 않고 있다. 이러한 맥락에선 본 연구는 아시아에서는 유일하게 사회주의 국가에서 민주화를 이루어내고, 거의 30년 동안 민주주의를 유지 발전시키고 있는 몽골을 대상으로 유권자의 회고투표 행태를 경험적으로 검증하였다. 몽골 최초로 국회의원 선거 유권자 설문조사를 실시하고 이를 분석한 결과 2020년 제8회 몽골 국회의원 선거에서 몽골 유권자들은 국가경제에 대한 회고적 평가에 기초하여 총리와 집권당에 대한 정치적 지지를 결정하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 신생민주주의 국가인 몽골의 유권자들이 선거를 정치인들의 정치적 책무성을 담보할 수 있는 정치적 장치로서 활용 할 수 있음을 보여준다고 하겠다.
Abstract
Making a vote decision based on retrospective evaluations of government is one of the ways to hold the government and representatives accountable in modern representative democracies. This retrospective voting theory has been extensively tested in established democracies, and is strongly supported. However the extant studies have paid little attentions to new democracies, especially new democracies in Asia. In this vein, this study empirically tests retrospective voting theory in Mongolia which has consolidated its democracy after the democratic transition from the communist regime. By conducting and analyzing the first election survey of Mongolia, this study finds that Mongolian voters vote retrospectively based on their sociotropic economic evaluations in the 2020 Mongolian Legislative election. This result implies that Mongolian voters, as voters in a new Asian democracy use their elections to hold their government and representatives accountable.
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