경기변동이 실직자 고용, 임금 및 후생에 미치는 영향
The Welfare Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Korea
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경기변동이 실직자에게 미치는 경제적 효과는 어느 정도인가? 해당 질문에 답하기 위해 본 논문은 한국노동패널조사 전 기간(1998년~2021년) 자료를 활용하여 실직 시점의 경기 국면이 실직자에게 미치는 영향을 고용, 임금, 및 후생 측면에서 분석해보았다. 먼저 패널 고정효과 모형으로 임금근로 실직자의 임금손실을 분석한 결과 불황 때 실직한 근로자가 호황 때 실직한 근로자보다 크고 장기적인 임금 손실을 겪었으며, 약 1.5배의 누적 임금 손실을 보였다. 이러한 현상은 특히 중소기업, 서비스업 실직자, 타산업ㆍ직종 재취업 실직자, 장기 실업 근로자에게서 나타났다. 해당 실증분석 결과를 토대로 Kreps (2007) 모형을 활용하여 경기변동이 높은 후생비용(sizable welfare cost)을 초래함을 밝혔다. 또한, 글로벌 금융위기 이후로 후생비용이 작아지는 현상도 확인하였다.
Abstract
What is the economic cost of job displacement over the business cycle? To answer this question, we analyze the extent to which the business cycle faced by displaced workers affects their subsequent employment and wages, using the data from Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) spanning from 1998 to 2021. In particular, we employ a fixed-effects model for estimating wage loss after job displacement and find that the workers who lost their jobs during a recession suffered a larger and more persistent wage loss than those who lost their jobs during a boom, with a cumulative wage loss of about 1.5 times. This difference was prominent among workers who were displaced from the small and medium-sized firms and service sector, those who were re-employed in different industries and occupations, and among the long-term unemployed. We then estimate the welfare cost of job displacement by following Kreps (2007) based on our empirical results.
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