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주요 석유수입국의 석유안보를 위한 전략 연구: 석유비축과 유류세 정책을 중심으로

The Study of Strategies of Oil Security for Major Oil Importing Countries: Focused on Oil Stockpiling and Taxation Policies

오세신|양일석
재단법인 에너지경제연구원 (Korea Energy Economics Institute)|2016.09|에너지경제연구 (Korea Energy Economic Review)|제15권 제2호|pp. 147-187|DOI 10.22794/keer.2016.15.2.006

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키워드

석유안보Oil SecurityCournot Competition쿠르노 경쟁유류세석유비축Oil StockpilingOil Taxation
주제분류경제학

초록

아시아는 빠른 경제성장을 바탕으로 세계 석유수요의 중심지역으로 부상하고 있지만 다른 지역과 비교해 석유자원의 제한으로 역외 지역으로부터의 원유수입이 급증하고 있어 석유안보에 대한 필요성이 높아지고 있다. 이에 따라 아시아의 주요 석유소비국인 한국, 중국, 일본, 인도는 각자의 경제적 상황에 맞추어 석유안보를 위한 정책들을 강화해 왔다. 이 가운데 석유비축과 유류세 정책은 이들 석유소비국들의 대표적인 석유안보 정책으로 게임이론을 바탕으로 사회후생을 극대화하는 최적 정책의 방향성을 분석할 수 있다. 분석결과 석유비축은 공급 충격의 발생 확률 또는 정도가 높을 때, 또는 낮은 유가에서 비축이 늘어날 필요가 있으며, 유류세는 공급 위험이 높거나 자국 경제의 석유수요 의존도가 낮을 때 인상될 필요가 있다.

Abstract

Asia has been located on the center stage of oil market due to its oil demand increase based on rapid economic growth. But the necessity of oil security within Asia has been getting enhanced as its imports of crude oil from outside is considerably swelling. Therefore Asian major oil consuming countries such as Korea, China, Japan, and India have bolstered their oil policies related to oil security according to their economic circumstances. Oil stockpiling and taxation are representative policies among those policies and they are analysed using game theory to identify their optimal direction to maximize the social welfare of an oil consuming country. The results suggest that the higher possibility or the higher degree of oil supply shock or lower price of oil, the more oil stockpiling for an country while the higher supply risk of oil or lower economic dependence of oil, the higher oil taxation for an country to enhance oil security.

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