에이전시와 컨틴전시- 인과성 추론의 문제를 중심으로
Agency and Contingency- Causality Account in Social Science
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초록
이 논문은 인과성에 대한 일상적 추론이나 사회과학적 설명에서, 에이전시와대비되는 컨틴전시의 역할과 비중에 대해 논의한다. 우연성과 불확실성의 작동에대한 여러 인지적 취약성과 오류들이 소개되고, 이것이 우리의 추론과 설명에서어떻게 잘못된 해석이나 결론을 내게 만드는지 논의된다. 확률적 추론에서 시행횟수의 측면을 간과하는 데서 오는 오류, ‘승자선별 편기(偏嗜),’ 그리고 ‘시간 비대칭성’과 ‘하인드사이트 오류’ 등을 소개하고, 이들이 어떻게 역사와 시장기제 그리고개인 정체성의 해석이나 이해 등에서 작용하고 있는지 검토한다. 개인과 역사에근본적으로 게재되어 있는 우연성의 측면에서 (로티식의) 아이로니즘과 자유의 문제를 언급해 본다.
Abstract
In this paper we discuss on the relative role of agency vs. contingency in social science accounts of causality. We first briefly review some cognitive vulnerability and errors about randomness phenomenon, and their evolutionary origin. We discuss how the basic human propensity to construct 'meaningful'patterns out of partial clues lead us to make diverse errors in causality attribution. Errors related with ignorance of the size of sample, 'the survivorship bias' in which we makes over-generalization from observing only the winners, and the fundamental time-asymmetry and the 'hindsight fallacy' in which we neglect the ex ante alternatives will be introduced. We discuss how these fallacies are related with our understanding of the market, interpretation of historical events, and self-appreciation of individual identity. Lastly, following Rorty's ironism, we briefly mention about the phiolosophical implication of the contigent aspect of man and history.
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