기초지방자치단체 세입예산 과소추계의 원인에 관한 연구
The Cause of Under-estimating in Local Governments' Revenue Estimating
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Abstract
In this article, I will examine the proposition that local governments have consistently underestimate local revenues every budget period in order to provide a cushion in the event of an unanticipated downturn in economic conditions. And I will evaluate the extent and degree of underestimate in local governments during periods of economic recession as well as periods of expansion over 10-year period. The presence of uncertainty in revenue forecasts means that it is in the best interests of revenue forecasters to provide themselves with a cushion to guard against a drop in revenues that is unanticipated. If estimates of revenues incorporate a safety valve in the form of cushion, then revenues will be consistently underestimate every forecast period, whether the forecast reflects the expectation of expansion or one of decline. My results suggest that the single most important factors that contributes to estimate errors that are relatively large in expansions and small in recessions is the persistent and quite logical tendency of local governments to estimate revenues.
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