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개방과 경제성장: 동아시아와 라틴아메리카의 경제성장 경험 비교

Openness and Economic Growth: East Asia and Latin America

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한국비교경제학회 (The Korea Association For Comparative Economics)|2010.09|비교경제연구 (The Comparative Economic Review)|제17권 제2호|pp. 1-38|DOI 10.23014/kace.17.2.201009.1

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인과관계시계열분석East AsiaLatin America라틴아메리카수출경제성장Economic GrowthFDI외국인직접투자ExportsANIEsToda-Yamamoto Granger Causality
주제분류경제학

초록

동아시아와 라틴아메리카의 지난 40여년간의 경제성장 경험은 여러 측면에서 많은 정책적 시사점을 주는 교과서적인 사례로 꼽힌다. 특히, 양 지역에서 대외개방이 경제성장에 미친 상이한 결과 및 그 이유에 대한 이해는 개발경제학자 및 정책당국자들에게 관심의 대상이 되어왔다. 이에 본 논문은 1970년대 이후 아르헨티나, 브라질, 멕시코로 대표되는 라틴아메리카 주요국들(LA3)과 한국, 대만, 홍콩, 싱가포르 등 아시아신흥공업국(ANIEs)들간 개방과 경제성장간의 상호 인과관계를 분석하고 그 차이를 살펴봄으로써 양 지역 비교연구에 일조하려고 한다. 특히 대외개방과 관련하여 최근 더욱 강조되고 있는 외국인직접투자 유입의 역할이 양 지역에서 어떻게 달랐는지에 대해 눈여겨 보려한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 이들 국가들의 경제성장과정에서 수출, 외국인직접투자 유입 및 GDP(경제성장의 대용변수) 등 세 변수간의 상호 인과관계를 1970년-2008년간 시계열 데이터를 이용하여 고찰한다. 분석 결과, 양 지역 국가들간 수출, 외국인직접투자 유입 및 GDP간 상호 인과관계에 흥미있는 차이가 존재하며, 특히 외국인직접투자의 역할에 있어서 현저한 차이가 있는 것으로 드러났다. 멕시코 이외의 라틴아메리카 국가들에 있어서는 외국인직접투자의 수출 및 경제성장에 대한 영향이 의미있게 나타나지 않았으나 모든 동아시아 국가들에서는 외국인직접투자가 경제성장 또는 수출에 중요한 역할을 했을 뿐 아니라 대체로 외국인직접투자와 수출 그리고 경제성장간 선순환적인 인과관계도 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 외국인직접투자의 역할 차이가 연구대상 동아시아와 라틴아메리카 국가들간 경제적 성과의 차이를 설명하는 한 요인임을 시사하고 있다.

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between openness and economic growth both for major Latin American countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Mexico(LA3), and for Asian Newly Industrialized Economies(ANIEs) such as Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, using time-series data from 1970 through 2008. In contrast to most previous studies that focus mainly on exports-growth nexus, the paper pays special attention to the role of foreign direct investment(FDI) played in the process of economic development. Following Toda and Yamamoto(1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl(1996), this paper implements Granger causality tests by specifying an over-fitted level vector autoregression(VAR) model that includes real GDP, exports and FDI inflows as endogenous variables. The empirical results indicate that the role of FDI may account for the divergent growth performance between the two groups of the countries over the past four decades. It is found that the FDI inflows in ANIEs, in general, have played a growth-enhancing role while those in Latin American countries haven't, except Mexico. Our findings, therefore, convey important policy implication that the government should not only encourage FDI inflows but induce them to more productive and growth-promoting sectors, maintaining macroeconomic stability at the same time.

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