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ASEAN 주요국의 수출, 직접투자유입 및 경제성장간 상호관계 연구: 시계열 및 패널자료 인과관계 분석

FDI Inflows, Exports and Economic Growth in Major ASEAN Countries: Time Series and Panel Causality Analyses

원용걸
한국동남아학회|2008.08|동남아시아연구 (The Southeast Asian Review)|제18권 제2호|pp. 173-209|DOI 10.21652/kaseas.18.2.200808.173

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인과관계ASEAN패널데이터 분석수출경제성장FDI외국인 직접투자GDP시계열ExportsGranger Causality.Panel Data Causality Analysis
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초록

Using time-series and panel data from 1971 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between economic growth (using GDP as a proxy), exports, and FDI inflows among major ASEAN economies, including Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We first show and compare ASEAN's economic status with other East Asian countries in the context of East Asian Miracle. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causality relations for each of the four economies. We found each country has different causality relations, yielding no general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the four ASEAN economies as a group. We use the fixed effects model approach to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that there are bidirectional causality relations between exports and GDP, and bet ween exports and FDI inflows. But we found no evidence that GDP and FDI inflow are directly related. When these causality relations are combined, however, we found FDI inflows affect GDP indirectly through exports. Our results provide an important policy message that FDI inflows can promote economic growth only under an export promotion regime. Our results also indicate that panel data causality analysis is superior to time series analysis.

Abstract

Using time-series and panel data from 1971 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between economic growth (using GDP as a proxy), exports, and FDI inflows among major ASEAN economies, including Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We first show and compare ASEAN's economic status with other East Asian countries in the context of East Asian Miracle. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causality relations for each of the four economies. We found each country has different causality relations, yielding no general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the four ASEAN economies as a group. We use the fixed effects model approach to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that there are bidirectional causality relations between exports and GDP, and bet ween exports and FDI inflows. But we found no evidence that GDP and FDI inflow are directly related. When these causality relations are combined, however, we found FDI inflows affect GDP indirectly through exports. Our results provide an important policy message that FDI inflows can promote economic growth only under an export promotion regime. Our results also indicate that panel data causality analysis is superior to time series analysis.

참고문헌 (50)

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